Post #14736 by sano on the US Policy board

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Jay Kuo and I are both sceptical wrt the NYT poll. When push comes to shove, Dean Phillips voters, pro-choice women, POC, and never-Trumpers are not going to pull a 'Bernie' such that Trump does better than he did 4 years ago.

The bullet points:

1) Women: "I do not believe Biden is tied with women nationally 46-46… Biden got 57% of women in 2020. You're telling me that, post-Dobbs, his support among that demo group will drop to 46? Not credible."

2) Democrats: "The NYT/Siena poll has Phillips at 12 percent support among Democrats.
... his actual vote haul averages 1.5 percent.
There have been 3 DNC sanctioned primaries and Phillips vote:
South Carolina - 1.7%
Nevada - 0.0%
Michigan - 2.7%"

3)Young voters: "The news in this poll was partway decent for Biden when it came to young voters age 18-29. He leads Trump by 13 points among them, 54 to 41 percent—but that’s still around half the spread that other major polls have on this age group."

4) Latino voters: "When the Times interviewed Latino voters, an important part of the Democratic base especially in the battleground states of Nevada and Arizona, it focused nearly completely on English-speaking respondents. The result was a 46-40 skew by Latinos in favor of Trump, ..... The Univision poll, by the way, had Biden over Trump 58 to 31 once you included Spanish speakers, who skewed 62-26 for Biden."

5) "Given that the polls are methodologically suspect at best and even weaponized against us at worst, we need to make data-driven cases for why they are unreliable and to keep these things squarely in mind as we get closer to Election Day.

When a poll like this comes out, ask some basic questions. Is the poll an outlier when it comes to key demographics, like women, young people and minorities? Does it use flawed methodology and exclude whole swaths of voters, like Spanish-speaking households? Does it square with actual election results where Democrats have shown overwhelming support for Joe Biden and no interest in his challengers?"

https://statuskuo.substack.com/p/status-report-abo...

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Does it square with actual election results where Democrats have shown overwhelming support for Joe Biden and no interest in his challengers?"

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"Squaring with actual election results" is more or less asserting Biden's popularity could not have really suffered that much, so the poll is suspect.

Another way to look at it is, the optimism at the outset of the Biden Admin in 2020 has been displaced by disappointment after 3+ years of the Biden Admin.

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"Another way to look at it is, the optimism at the outset of the Biden Admin in 2020 has been displaced by disappointment after 3+ years of the Biden Admin.

Assumes that Biden's victory was not helped by the significant 'never-trump' and 'anybody-but-trump' demographic.

Those voters, call them RINOs or indies, were not necessarily optimistic about Biden. They were revolted by Trump.

That revulsion persists.

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