Halls of Shrewd'm / US Policy
No. of Recommendations: 3
Listening to interviews with Democratic voters in Michigan, many of whom are unhappy with Biden. I get it. Fine. But what is insane is that they think they will somehow get a better deal by not voting in the general election and allowing Trump to win? Man, that is serious stupid.
No. of Recommendations: 4
I hear you. Though it's a little less stupid to be playing this type of game now - during an essentially uncontested primary - rather than the general election. Factions and interest groups within the party always try to put political pressure on the leaders. It only gets really self-defeating and stupid if they do it at times and in ways that make it harder to win elections. It's always a balance between trying to change where your party's position is and doing something that lets the opposing party take power. Maybe they'll get better perspective when we get to the general.
It will be interesting to see if they're as good at it as Republicans in 2016. Many GOP votes were unhappy with Trump, but were able to recognize that an election is a choice, not an affirmation. Democrats sometimes have trouble with that.
No. of Recommendations: 1
I don't know. I thought the main point of the "protest vote" is just to provide a way to signal extreme disapproval of Biden's handling of the Israel/Hamas/Palestine conflict. That is, it's a way to say "we are very unhappy with your policy here, President Biden". But when it comes to the general election, they would still vote for Biden.
But of course, there may still be foolish democrats who are blind to the much more consequential goal of keeping Trump from winning in 2024.
No. of Recommendations: 5
I thought the main point of the "protest vote" is just to provide a way to signal extreme disapproval of Biden's handling of the Israel/Hamas/Palestine conflict.
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Could be but it seems clear Biden is seeing the entire chess board and is attempting to do the best that can be done with the pieces available. There was news last night that a deal may be afoot that could provide a cease fire by next Monday 3/4. Obviously, "deals" in an area with a 70+ year history of constant conflict mean much less than in "normal" conflicts. However, at this point, anything would be an improvement over the destruction of dozens of square miles of densely populated areas that will create a housing shortage and humanitarian crisis for decades, which will only fuel the next generation of the cycle of madness.
WTH
No. of Recommendations: 1
Listening to interviews with Democratic voters in Michigan, many of whom are unhappy with Biden. I get it. Fine. But what is insane is that they think they will somehow get a better deal by not voting in the general election and allowing Trump to win? Man, that is serious stupid. - ges
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Did you notice why they were not supporting Biden or was non support all you need to dismiss the autoworkers as serious stupid?
For some reason, they are concerned that Biden's lust for EV's will result in their jobs disappearing. One of those interviewed mentioned that two engine manufacturing plants have already been shuttered costing 7,000 jobs. They can't all become web developers or TikTok influencers.
No. of Recommendations: 2
Could be but it seems clear Biden is seeing the entire chess board and is attempting to do the best that can be done with the pieces available. There was news last night that a deal may be afoot that could provide a cease fire by next Monday 3/4. Obviously, "deals" in an area with a 70+ year history of constant conflict mean much less than in "normal" conflicts. However, at this point, anything would be an improvement over the destruction of dozens of square miles of densely populated areas that will create a housing shortage and humanitarian crisis for decades, which will only fuel the next generation of the cycle of madness.
Indeed. I suspect that even if Biden was much more vocally critical of Israel's actions, and stopped all financial and military aid, Israel would still not change their tactics or their goal or timeline. For that matter, does Israel even need our aid? They certainly have a much greater supply of military resources than Ukraine!
No. of Recommendations: 1
I don't know. I thought the main point of the "protest vote" is just to provide a way to signal extreme disapproval of Biden's handling of the Israel/Hamas/Palestine conflict. That is, it's a way to say "we are very unhappy with your policy here, President Biden". But when it comes to the general election, they would still vote for Biden.
Yes, that's the one being most talked about.
But one of the interviewees was a African American woman who was unhappy with the economy. She was threatening to not vote in the general election. I can understand she may be frustrated with aspects of the economy (her main point was that it was hard to earn enough working 40 hours a week to support a family), but to think that it will be better for her under Trump? That does not compute.
No. of Recommendations: 2
...but to think that it will be better for her [economically] under Trump? That does not compute.
True dat.
No. of Recommendations: 4
But one of the interviewees was a African American woman who was unhappy with the economy. She was threatening to not vote in the general election. I can understand she may be frustrated with aspects of the economy (her main point was that it was hard to earn enough working 40 hours a week to support a family), but to think that it will be better for her under Trump? That does not compute.
Biden really shot himself in the foot with his Administration's response to high inflation, and I think it's coming back to bite him. They were all on "Team Transitory" for the longest time, and pointing to global inflation rates as evidence that it wasn't their fault. But voters hate inflation, and minimizing the problem - rather than very visible efforts to try to fight the problem - was 100% the wrong choice. Adopting a green energy bill (which is basically the main part of the Inflation Reduction Act) doesn't help; while most Democratic voters are generally supportive of efforts to fight climate change, it's not much of a priority for most of them.
Voters are very much aware that when Trump was President, prices (not inflation rates) and interest rates were much lower. And they're ticked off about it.
No. of Recommendations: 3
bighairymike: Did you notice why they were not supporting Biden or was non support all you need to dismiss the autoworkers as serious stupid?
Umm, the Michigan "uncommitted" protest vote campaign has nothing to do with autoworkers. Michigan is home to the largest Arab American community in the country, nearly a half million, who say they're voting uncommitted in protest of Biden's unwavering support for Israel's Gaza offensive, in which tens of thousands of Palestinians have been killed.
Yesterday, Biden announced that Israel has agreed to halt military activities in Gaza for the Muslim holy month of Ramadan expected to begin on the evening of March 10 but that may be too little too late.
No. of Recommendations: 4
BMH
Did you notice why they were not supporting Biden or was non support all you need to dismiss the autoworkers as serious stupid?
For some reason, they are concerned that Biden's lust for EV's will result in their jobs disappearing. One of those interviewed mentioned that two engine manufacturing plants have already been shuttered costing 7,000 jobs. They can't all become web developers or TikTok influencers. Biden's travel to the election battleground state was intended as a celebration after the
United Auto Workers (UAW) union recently endorsed his reelection bid.Biden visited a UAW union hall in Warren, Michigan, where UAW members plan to work a phone bank on his behalf ahead of the state's Feb. 27 nominating contest.
He was greeted by UAW President Shawn Fain,
who last week gave a full-throated endorsement of the Democratic incumbent and a sharp rebuke of Republican frontrunner Donald Trump.As the crowd chanted, "Joe, Joe," Fain promised Biden, "We're going to fight like hell" for him to win the November presidential election.
"Wall Street didn't build the middle class. Labor built the middle class, and the middle class built the country," Biden said. "When labor does well, everybody does well."
He later joked: "Besides, you built my '67 Corvette."
https://www.reuters.com/world/us/biden-visits-auto...We'll see if it translates into votes, but it usually does.
No. of Recommendations: 2
Umm, the Michigan "uncommitted" protest vote campaign has nothing to do with autoworkers. Michigan is home to the largest Arab American community in the country, nearly a half million, who say they're voting uncommitted in protest of Biden's unwavering support for Israel's Gaza offensive, in which tens of thousands of Palestinians have been killed. - CO
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OK, I did hear about the Talib thing you are referring to. The interview I saw was with a bunch of autoworkers apparently upset with the UAW's endorsement of Biden. Their reason was the loss of jobs inherent in Biden's aggressive support for EV's.
So that makes at least two groups in Michigan who are not keen on Biden.
No. of Recommendations: 2
They're a bit short-sighted. EVs require different motors, but they still require motors. And people to build them. And people to install them. And more manufacturing of the components of all of it. EV is creating a LOT of jobs. But, yes, it is also costing some jobs. But I believe it is a net gain. They still need lots of people.
No. of Recommendations: 2
They're a bit short-sighted. EVs require different motors, but they still require motors. And people to build them. And people to install them. And more manufacturing of the components of all of it. EV is creating a LOT of jobs. But, yes, it is also costing some jobs. But I believe it is a net gain. They still need lots of people.
But not necessarily people in Michigan.
I think the autoworkers are being very sophisticated, here. There's lots of auto manufacturing jobs in Detroit because there's lots of auto manufacturing in Detroit. A huge part of that is path dependence of the industry - Detroit was an early auto manufacturing center, so it still is. That's where the auto workers are, where the parts suppliers and manufacturers are, where the Big Three have all their sunk-cost manufacturing plants are, etc.
But a brand new type of car? New technology, that requires different parts and supplies and skills that aren't thick on the ground in Michigan? Why, those can be built anywhere. A major, dislocating shift in automotive technology reduces the competitive advantage of Michigan. Right now, Michigan is one of the major winners in automobile manufacturing - so any significant change, any significant uncertainty presents a huge risk for them. Even if change is inevitable, the risks it poses are greater and harder to adjust to the faster you speed it up. If a manufacturing plant in Michigan is going to close down, replaced by a new one in South Carolina, the autoworkers would much rather it close down in ten years than five.
No. of Recommendations: 1
But, as you say, there is a lot of sunk costs in Detroit. Sure, Tesla started up in Freemont. But Ford, GM, and the other big manufacturers are
also building EVs. And it is easier and cheaper to retool an existing line than it is to build completely new infrastructure.
But it is very complicated. For example, we have a '98 Jeep Cherokee. USA, right? Well, the transmission was made by Toyota. Was it imported from Japan, or made domestically...I don't know. But we have components made all over the place, different makers, being assembled in different locations. If you think you're buying an American car, it likely has foreign components in it. And it may not have been assembled in the US (and some foreign cars
are assembled here). This was the first hit from a quick search:
https://www.autoguide.com/auto-news/2017/01/top-10...So they already are a mish-mash of manufacturing. Adding EV shouldn't make that much difference to the mish-mash.
No. of Recommendations: 2
I think the autoworkers are being very sophisticated, here. There's lots of auto manufacturing jobs in Detroit because there's lots of auto manufacturing in Detroit.
Very true, but it's exactly that mentality, the 'but our sunk costs' mentality, the dedication to big steel cars that permitted the Asian and European makers to eat Detroit's lunch.
You'd think they'd have learned that the future will come whether the Big 3 adapt or not.
Article in the NYT last week suggests that the Chinese EV industry is on course to eat everybody's lunch in the Euro and Asian markets.
Change now or lose for the next century as ChairmanMaobile takes the lead.
No. of Recommendations: 3
"Even if change is inevitable, the risks it poses are greater and harder to adjust to the faster you speed it up. "
https://www.google.com/search?q=number+of+parts+in...lol, dude, the # of parts ( think jobs ) that an ice ( internal combustion engine ) requires versus an EV is off the charts. Like every other technology workforce, the # of autoworkers has shrunk as the years go by. The #'s will shrink heavily if EV's take over. The simplicity of EV versus ICE is no contest. But there are a lot of people that don't live in the sunbelt, so until battery cold weather performance makes some big gains, the ICE is going to be around, unless of course everybody moves to the sunbelt. And there is no way I'm moving to the sunbelt, so they'll have at least 1 customer for ICE vehicles, lol.
And as someone who lives in Michigan, the protest against Biden is due to Israel & Gaza, has ZERO to do with UAW thumbing their nose at Biden.
As an aside, I early voted last week, was the only voter in the Poll area. Worker hands me the card to choose which side ( R or D ) I want to vote. I ask her if there is an Independent category, she says No. I say, OK, is there an anti-Trump category, She beats back a smile and says No, there are only R or D. I laughed and said that will do.
No. of Recommendations: 2
Back to lurking, you guys argue too much, lol.
No. of Recommendations: 2
Anyway, it looks like the "uncommitted" effort ended up being.....middling. About 100K votes, or 13% of the vote. Not a small amount...but also only a little higher than the last Democratic incumbent to run in a Michigan primary (Obama had about 11% 'uncommitted' in 2012). Well south of the ~240K vote margin Biden won by in 2020. Probably enough for Biden's campaign team to conclude that yes, they have some work to do there, but that their Gaza policy isn't especially likely to be decisive in MI.
No. of Recommendations: 3
albaby1: Anyway, it looks like the "uncommitted" effort ended up being.....middling. About 100K votes...
Other interesting numbers from Michigan:
19.9% of the democratic votes were cast 'against' Biden while 32.2% of the republican votes were cast 'against' Trump.
During Obama's incumbent primary in 2012, he got a total of 174,054 votes in Michigan. There were a total of 194,887 votes cast in the entire Democratic primary (so about 11% voted uncommitted). Yesterday, Biden got 618,426 votes with 7% of the vote still to count (so about 13% voted uncommitted).
All in all, Trump ended up with 68.2% of the vote to Nikki Haley's 26.6%, which the media are touting as a big success, while Biden ended up with 80.1% of the vote (second place garnered 3.0%), which the media are calling worrisome.
No. of Recommendations: 1
Looking at the photos accompanying the Michigan story by various sources (Reuters, BBC, AP), most of the 'uncommitted' pundits and the placard carrying demonstrators appear to be Muslim. They're expressing their displeasure with the Israel/Hamas war.
"Aiyash is the majority floor leader in the Michigan House of Representatives, but there's no 2008 feeling when he looks ahead to this presidential election — in large part because of President Biden's handling of Israel's war in Gaza."They know damn well that when the time comes, another Trump presidency will likely result in more anti-Muslim restrictions.
https://www.npr.org/2024/02/27/1234106750/uncommit...
No. of Recommendations: 2
They know damn well that when the time comes, another Trump presidency will likely result in more anti-Muslim restrictions.
I can understand their anger, but, yes, to think they'll fare better under Trump? Crazy.
