WWIII will not come from the middle east. Israel can handle it pretty much by themselves at this point, though we do provide some logistical and fire support.

No, the real source(s) will be Russia escalating, or China escalating. Either or both are possible. Even likely. While their activities in the northern Philippine islands is making most of the news, the Chinese did just attack a Vietnamese vessel operating in internationally recognized Vietnamese waters. They are just very lucky we don't have a defense treaty with Vietnam like we do with the Philippines, and we'd likely be forced to send a battle group to Vietnamese waters.

I'm reading a piece now from the NYT regarding a report that was published about this very topic. Given how quickly war can happen today, we need to beef-up our military NOW. A "Pearl Harbor" event would leave us lacking, and we might lose before we could even respond. The Japanese couldn't mount a significant stand-off assault (I don't count their balloons, which were largely ineffective). Even DPRK today probably could. China definitely could.

We showed a lot of weakness during the convict's administration, with the convict actually admiring Putin and Xi. He was (and is) an isolationist, and they all knew it. We can't be isolationists, or a lot of democracies around the globe will be in peril. And anti-democracy will potentially rule as much of the globe as democracy does. Maybe more. That would be bad for us, and everyone else.