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The week's question
In December 2024, in the thread "Re: BRK: Why Not XOM?", BreckHutHigh asked the members: "What about the long road trips with kids?" This week it is put to everyone again. The button below opens the small thread re-asking it - read what others have said so far, then give your own answer as an ordinary reply.
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Investment Strategies / Mechanical Investing
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Author: anchak   😊 😞
Number: of 6129 
Subject: Re: Market Trends Update
Date: 05/11/23 12:54 PM
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Hi GD_.... Great approach !

But this is RRS ( Regression Slope) as opposed to SMA Change as defined and tested by Jim.
So its different - I am not value judging better/worse - but different. Because RRS ( 126d)
is proven as a Ranking metric through a lot of screens.

The main difference in my view - depending on how you have defined it would be the following
q's

(1) Did you just take the 180d SMA for last 2 weeks and calc the Slope - this would actually be very similar to Jim's
(2) While on the other hand - if you take the ACTUAL 180d Slope of the indices - that might take a while to turn over(slower but lesser whipsaws as is norm)- since it depends on the Regression fit.

(3) Jim's original definition ( and IIRC it was on the SP500) - is a 2 point check ie SMA180(0) - SMA180(10) <0. The smoothness comes from the SMA - which is fairly MT/LT and so it simply means - if there has been a LOT OF BAD DAYS LATELY - for it to go negative.

From an RRS standpoint .... it would take a LOT of Days for the entire observation cloud to have negative slope on 180d lookback

Hope this made sense!

best
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