If we try and keep the geo-political ramifications ( all of which look pretty grim BTW) aside and just look at it from a quasi-quant and macroeconomic perspective

(1) Any drag-on and back-and-forth leads to uncertainty and freeze on businesses and lack of clarity ie Not good for markets
(2) Even say it converges - and given this is the admins fervent "belief elixir" - to a pooled rate of ~10-12% - its an ABSOLUTE rise of about +10% in the taxation rate of goods.

Scenario 1 : Depending on Gross Margins - lets say 2-3% of it , absolute level is absorbed by the businesses . The rest of it will get passed on - so about 8-9%

NDX roughly doubled when Corporate taxes went from 33% to 21% ie 1/3 rd marginal impact ~11/33 .... while this would be similar or a bit more.


Scenario 2: Everything gets passed onto consumers.

That would be rampant inflation. And everything would be determined by demand elasticity ( ie Staples will do better. Discretionary will be decimated)


Irrespective: If your Operating margins are <10% and in the 8-9% range - and you are exposed - your marginal profitability is a straight impact.

Logically, none of these scenarios look that rosy!

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