No. of Recommendations: 7
WHY might the Russians be suddenly interested in ramping things down? There are a few answers to that. Two of them are:
1. It's definitely not in Russia's interest for the Euros to suddenly turn their weapons factories back on
2. The US is now exporting LNG at record rates...and that means Europe doesn't need to buy the from Russkies anymore
SNIP Russia will likely face a number of material, manpower, and economic issues in 12 to 18 months if Ukrainian forces continue to inflict damage on Russian forces on the battlefield at the current rate. Russia's defense industrial base (DIB) cannot sustain Russia's current armored vehicle, artillery system, and ammunition burn rates in the medium-term. Russia's recruitment efforts appear to be slowing such that they cannot indefinitely replace Russia's current casualty rates without an involuntary reserve mobilization, which Russian President Vladimir Putin has shown great reluctance to order. Putin has mismanaged Russia's economy, which is suffering from increased and unsustainable war spending, growing inflation, significant labor shortages, and reductions in Russia's sovereign wealth fund. These issues will present difficult decision points to Putin in 2026 or 2027 provided current trends continue. Putin thus is likely prioritizing breaking Western and particularly US support to Ukraine in 2025 and securing his desired end state in negotiations, letting him avoid facing the nexus of difficult problems he now confronts. US military aid to Ukraine has let Ukraine drive Russia towards a critical moment when Putin will have to make hard choices. SNIP
The above are the likely reasons, Putin wants something that looks like a win for him before 2026.
The aid has been paused now. Note the reductions in Russia's sovereign wealth fund, usually not mentioned on the Shrewd.
