No. of Recommendations: 5
lost in the election news is the downtrend for trump's patron, putin.
this is a more complex scenario with no fixed decisive event (like an election), but putin's war efforts may have peaked around the same time as trump's ambitions. and its looking less likely trump will able to save putin in exchange for some grift.
ukraine has overachieved whenever given adequate resources (and many times even when the GOP was not coming through, but europe was). there was a recent set of momentum-swing events that happened probably in relation to preparation to fly F16s :
- destruction of multiple russian border s400 ground-to-air systems
- multiple russian airfield damage, including fighter support\refueling craft
- incursion into disputed region with anticipation of F16 air support
- accelerated damage to russian energy export refineries to halt war funding and jet fuel
- complete loss of previously repaired russian submarine (only sea-to-ground, so coincidental)
it seems only a matter of time when russia's 2 fragile lifelines to crimea will be cut, which would mark the most significant strategic event of the war. trump may even claim to switch sides.
most experts believe the F16s were an inferior choice, but tied ukraine strongly to both NATO and the U.S.
there will still be ups and downs here, and possibly even some losses of F16s.
since this war has no logic, it is difficult to see why putin will end it. there seems no scenario where ending the war threatens putin's position, nor any competence in moving from destroying civilians to military objectives.
