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The week's question
In December 2024, in the thread "Re: BRK: Why Not XOM?", BreckHutHigh asked the members: "What about the long road trips with kids?" This week it is put to everyone again. The button below opens the small thread re-asking it - read what others have said so far, then give your own answer as an ordinary reply.
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Author: albaby1 SILVER
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Number: of 84357 
Subject: Re: 25M+ barrels of oil went out yesterday.
Date: 08/27/26 8:38 AM
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The pipeline across Saudi Arabia you mention seems to ignore Iran's history and willingness to attack its neighbors oil infrastructure.

Not at all. That's a different, though related, issue.

Iran will retain the ability to attack energy infrastructure as an escalatory response to attacks on its own energy facilities - or against attacks against it in general. That is a major security weapon that they have.

But in terms of an ordinary charge on Strait passage in ordinary times, they're not going to be calling out bombers or launching missiles against Saudi pipelines. That would be an unprovoked act of war, and their own facilities at Kharg (and other places) are vulnerable as well. It's in their quiver as a "shoot back" option, which discourages people from shooting at them - but they're not likely to use it as a "shoot first" option.

Instead, they're vastly more likely to just price the fee on transiting the Strait at a level that isn't so high that it would itself immediately support massive pipeline projects. Again, about a dollar or so per barrel seems about right. High enough to generate more than 10% of their annual government budget, but low enough that it doesn't become a no brainer to build a gazillion pipelines throughout the region.

They're absolutely not going to be able to charge enough to meaningfully raise the price that motorists pay for gasoline in the U.S. That would require upwards of $20 per barrel, and the market simply won't bear that.
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This community has written 84,309 posts about US Policy. The article-length ones it recommended most:
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