Thanks indefensible.

I've been doing some more looking and I'm coming to this conclusion:

1. Granite is a solid REIT but its priced for years of zooming rent increases in the next few years that may not happen, in a world with a trade war and high rates/inflation hurting business.

In particular their number 1 tenant is close to the heart of the trade war/tariffs. If that one thing goes wrong, the whole REIT is fairly screwed for years to come.

The 50% rally in Granite's price in the last year is enough to move it from bargain to so-so, maybe even priced for flawless execution and good tailwinds.

Wish I'd noticed it last year. If it drops 25%, or if it drops 10% and the CAD drops 15%, I think I'll consider it.

2. Vital is interesting, there may be some value, it depends on whether it has taken enough of the necessary medicine and gets some tailwinds/fortune.

The discount to NAV isn't worth anything if the NAV is wrong by even 10%. When you have 50% LTV, that means you multiply the impact of NAV estimate errors by 2 - e.g. assets = 2x equity.

The investment in various global markets creates politics/tax/currency/weirdness/complexity that e.g. a one-country REIT doesn't have. Brazil, for example, is a major market.

It greatly increases the chance that the NAV might indeed be off by 5,10,15,20%.

In terms of occupancy etc there's not a lot of room for things to improve. I feel it's a kind of gamble on cost cutting, and praying that rates drop, or that the market spontaneously decides trouble is over.

I would work to the assumption the 'discount to NAV' might be 'a fair reflection of true NAV' and focus on the operational returns rather than the tempting thought of NAV reversion.

I'm not sure that (6.6% x 0.85) divi with a bit of cover and currency risk / brokerage hassles is enough to win me over.

I know stocks that don't have the troubles background, the currency issues, the 15% WHT, and which yield the same with the same cover.

I might hang on, see if it drops 10-15% more. Or if the Canadian dollar drops 10-15% more. Looking at the last 30 years, it's quite possible.

At the end of the day, the whole market is a bit pricey just now, CAPE, P/E, P/S, P/BV through the roof. Risks of wars, trade wars, recession, inflation, rates, rapid economic change

Maybe I should be looking for things to sell rather than things to buy...

Thank you for your reply and the link.

TRS