Hi, Shrewd!        Login  
Shrewd'm.com 
A merry & shrewd investing community
Best Of MIBest OfAll BoardsThe Shrewd’m WeeklyLearn to InvestHow to Become Shrewd
Search
Shrewd'm.com Merry shrewd investors
Search
Best Of MIBest OfAll BoardsThe Shrewd’m WeeklyLearn to InvestHow to Become Shrewd


The week's question
In December 2024, in the thread "Re: BRK: Why Not XOM?", BreckHutHigh asked the members: "What about the long road trips with kids?" This week it is put to everyone again. The button below opens the small thread re-asking it - read what others have said so far, then give your own answer as an ordinary reply.
Answer this questionContinue to Shrewd'mThis note won't appear again
Investment Strategies / Mechanical Investing
Unthreaded | Threaded | Whole Thread (2) |
Author: Taz2   😊 😞
Number: of 6131 
Subject: P123 backtesting insights
Date: 06/20/25 3:12 PM
Post New | Post Reply | Report Post | Recommend It!
No. of Recommendations: 9
Musselmant posted:"Did your experiments with P123'S longer term backtester periods generate a few good criteria combos you can share?"

1) Screens that started their backtest in 1999 (peak of the internet explosion)performed much, much better than the same screens that started in 2001 (internet collapse). The P123 Zweig screen had a total gain of 3,919% starting in '99. It had a 600% total gain when starting in '01.

2)An excellent performing public P123 screen over the long term has been Quality_Value with an 83,000% return (32% CAGR), -77% MaxDD. 1.36 Sortino ratio. It does rely on P123's custom Ranking formula.

Country(“USA”)
Universe($ADR)=FALSE // Only USA stocks
Frank(“OpMgn%TTM”,#Industry,#desc)>=50
Frank(“OpMgn%TTM”,#All,#desc)>=50
Frank(“OpMgn%5Y”,#Industry,#desc)>=50
Frank(“OpMgn%5Y”,#All,#desc)>=50
Frank(“AstTurnTTM”,#Industry,#desc)>=50
Frank(“AstTurnTTM”,#All,#desc)>=50
Frank(“ROI%TTM”,#Industry,#desc)>=50
Frank(“ROI%TTM”,#All,#desc)>=50
Frank(“ROI%5Yavg”,#Industry,#desc)>=50
Frank(“ROI%5Yavg”,#All,#desc)>=50
Frank(“IntCovTTM”,#Industry,#desc)>=50
Frank(“IntCovTTM”,#All,#desc)>=50
CurFYEPSLow>0 // Earnings will be positive this year
FOrderOLD(“Pr2SalesTTM”,#All,#Asc,#Previous,TRUE)<=8

3. My most successful screen has been what I call BenchmarkPlus!. It uses the standard Benchmarking the Dow parameters plus i) it stays out of commodities and highly regulated industries, and ii) it requires ROC > CAPM Discount Rate. Longterm CAGR 26%, maxDD -56%, Sortino 1.36.

Universe(NOOTC)=TRUE & Universe($adr)=false
Universe(MasterLP)=false and SalesGr%TTM!=NA
AvgDailyTot(20)>500000 // Enough liquidity to trade
Price > 1 // No penny stocks
// Stay out of commodities and highly regulated industries
!GICS(FINANC) and !GICS(BASICM) and !GICS(UTILIT)
!GICS(REOPER) and !GICS(BLDRAW) and !GICS(AGRLIV) and !GICS(ACROPS) and !GICS(CCOALL)
EBITDAPY>0 and EBITDAPY2>0 and EBITDAPY3>0 and EBITDAPY4>0 and EBITDAPY5>0 //no negative earnings
CurFYEPSMean>0 & CurFYEPSMean!=NA
NextFYEPSMean>CurFYEPSMean
$ROC>$CAPMDiscRate/100
CurFYEPSMean>1.10*EPSActual(0,ANN) //Growing EPS
ROE%5YAvg != NA & ROE%TTM != NA
Price<$MktToBookLow*(ROE%TTM/ROE%5Yavg)*BVPSA //priced below historical norms
Pr2SalesTTM != NA
FOrderOLD(“Pr2SalesTTM”,#All,#Asc,#Previous,TRUE)<=4

Taz

Post New | Post Reply | Report Post | Recommend It!
Print the post
Members reply directly to Taz2 here — and replies get answered. Reading is free; so is joining the conversation. Join Shrewd'm »
This community has written 6,115 posts about Mechanical Investing. The article-length ones it recommended most:
Dividend investing · 52 recs · 2025
Non-Mag7 screen · 34 recs · 2025
OT - Div yields and returns · 32 recs · 2024
Using AI to generate backtesting programs · 30 recs · 2025
Rankings for 19Dec2022 · 29 recs · 2022
Unthreaded | Threaded | Whole Thread (2) |


Announcements
Mechanical Investing FAQ
Contact Shrewd'm
Contact the developer of these message boards.

Best Of MI | Best Of | Favourites & Replies | All Boards | Followed Shrewds | Open Questions | Moving a community