No. of Recommendations: 2
If good quality polls say Trump has a small lead and good quality models say Biden has a small lead, that would seem to say that this is a very close race. Either candidate could win.
That would be the case if we had reason to believe that it was still a good quality model. But we know that the electorate isn't reacting to positive economic conditions the way it normally does. Typically, an incumbent presiding over a good economy is popular. Biden is not. He is singularly, extraordinarily unpopular. Which is a really powerful sign that economic indicators that are normally associated with doing well in elections are not likely to have the same value for the Biden race.
