No. of Recommendations: 9
Is the only component of GTT a 43 week SMA?
43 week SMA for sell/buy timing signals.
The GTT paper uses 12 month SMA, I prefer 10 month (43 weeks).
Sell signal ignored if BOTH these FRED indexes are positive YOY.
INDPRO Industrial Production Index, Index 2012=100, Monthly, Seasonally Adjusted
RRSFS Real Retail and Food Services Sales, Monthly, Seasonally Adjusted
If *either* is down YOY, then you are to obey any SMA sell signal.
In a nutshell, you only consider selling if the SMA is negative when the economy _might_ be in a recession. When the FRED indexes both indicate the the economy is _not_ in a recession, then stay invested (do not sell) regardless of the SMA.
The GTT paper is long and confusing. There are sites that present the meat without the fluff and exhaustive data.
