Is the only component of GTT a 43 week SMA?

43 week SMA for sell/buy timing signals.
The GTT paper uses 12 month SMA, I prefer 10 month (43 weeks).

Sell signal ignored if BOTH these FRED indexes are positive YOY.
INDPRO Industrial Production Index, Index 2012=100, Monthly, Seasonally Adjusted
RRSFS Real Retail and Food Services Sales, Monthly, Seasonally Adjusted

If *either* is down YOY, then you are to obey any SMA sell signal.

In a nutshell, you only consider selling if the SMA is negative when the economy _might_ be in a recession. When the FRED indexes both indicate the the economy is _not_ in a recession, then stay invested (do not sell) regardless of the SMA.

The GTT paper is long and confusing. There are sites that present the meat without the fluff and exhaustive data.

Mechanical Investing FAQ

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