No. of Recommendations: 13
So, the celebration should be that the big sudden loss in real purchasing power in the first half of last year has ended, and the recent flat spot is at least better than when we were losing real value gradually for the ~7 years up to the pandemic. But no positive value creation.
I agree with other comments that the real value is the optionality. From time to time there is an opportunity that only someone with a big cash pile can take advantage of.
OK, thanks. Your numbers are much better than my eyeballing and handwaving. And for the sake of argument, I will grant that this big slug of cash may someday enable a big, transformative purchase. That requires a lot of faith, with the dwindling number of candidates big enough to make so much cash necessary, and Buffett's lack of success in acquiring anything big and helpful in the last 10-15, the frustrating persistence of high prices for public companies, and the dwindling number of years that Buffett is likely to have to make this elephantine purchase. But let's just grant the argument that it's always good to have options, and this one may work someday. On top of that, it is still important to see the economic performance of that $160b in float, while we're waiting.
And your better numbers lead me to much the same conclusion. We have gone from about -1% return on the short-term treasuries for 8 years (practically the whole dollar amount of the float being invested in short-term treasuries), to one bad year of -11%, and now up to +1.5% in the last year. So over the last 10 years, that gives us -16.5% (average -1.6%). And now, finally, there's hope that we might be back to the usual positive spread, currently at +1.5%. That roughly 3% swing, from -1.5% to +1.5%, if it holds up, means that that big chunk of $160b in float may be worth a lot more than we might have thought, last year, when it seemed to be just losing money. 3% of $160b is about $5b, and even for a company as big as Berkshire, with $31b in operating earnings, that change in float return is a pretty big deal.
dtb
