Hi, Shrewd!        Login  
Shrewd'm.com 
A merry & shrewd investing community
Best Of BRK.ABest OfAll BoardsThe Shrewd’m WeeklyLearn to InvestHow to Become Shrewd
Search
Shrewd'm.com Merry shrewd investors
Search
Best Of BRK.ABest OfAll BoardsThe Shrewd’m WeeklyLearn to InvestHow to Become Shrewd


The week's question
In March 2025, in the thread "Re: OT, out", Umm asked the members: "Do you think it is because America is made up of magical soil that makes businesses based in America magically profitable?" This week it is put to everyone again. The button below opens the small thread re-asking it - read what others have said so far, then give your own answer as an ordinary reply.
Answer this questionContinue to Shrewd'mThis note won't appear again
Stocks A to Z / Stocks B / Berkshire Hathaway (BRK.A)
Unthreaded | Threaded | Whole Thread (15) |
Author: rrr12345 ⎊  😊 😞
Number: of 22351 
Subject: Re: Asset allocation
Date: 10/02/26 7:45 PM
Post New | Post Reply | Report Post | Recommend It!
No. of Recommendations: 3
"Expected return on Berkshire 7% real?
Tbills 1% real?

100% (+) Berkshire..."

I agree that given the high valuation of the S&P 500, BRKB/T-Bills is a better portfolio than S&P 500/T-Bills, although I don't think that BRKB will return 7% real, even though it has done so recently. Maybe 5% real over the long term. Over the next 5-10 years, though, I expect BRKB to return less than that, as the S&P corrects and BRKB falls with it. Over the next 5-10 years my guess would be something like 0%-5% nominal return for the S&P and slightly higher for BRKB. If we give the S&P 4% nominal, BRKB 5% nominal and T-Bills 4% nominal, that changes the recommended BRKB/T-Bill portfolio allocation to 25% BRKB/75% T-Bills and an S&P 500/T-Bill portfolio allocation to 0% S&P/100% T-Bills.

As we can see, the recommended allocations depend strongly on the expected returns of the S&P and BRKB. I hope that your expectations prove to be closer to actual than mine.

Good luck to all of us.
Post New | Post Reply | Report Post | Recommend It!
Print the post
Members reply directly to rrr12345 here — and replies get answered. Reading is free; so is joining the conversation. Join Shrewd'm »
This community has written 21,861 posts about Berkshire Hathaway. The article-length ones it recommended most:
BRK: Why Not XOM? · 62 recs · 2024
Second quarter comments · 60 recs · 2023
Berkshire's Profit Contributors · 58 recs · 2023
Summary of 2Q 2026 · 55 recs · 2026
3Q Summary · 53 recs · 2024
Unthreaded | Threaded | Whole Thread (15) |


Announcements
Berkshire Hathaway FAQ
Contact Shrewd'm
Contact the developer of these message boards.

Best Of BRK.A | Best Of | Favourites & Replies | All Boards | Followed Shrewds | Open Questions | Moving a community