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The week's question
In December 2024, in the thread "Re: BRK: Why Not XOM?", sykesix asked the members: "What do you do if you arrive early at movie besides go to the snack bar?" This week it is put to everyone again. The button below opens the small thread re-asking it - read what others have said so far, then give your own answer as an ordinary reply.
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Stocks A to Z / Stocks B / Berkshire Hathaway (BRK.A)
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Author: mungofitch ✹✺🐝🐝🐝 SILVER
SHREWD
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Number: of 22989 
Subject: Re: Why I sold my entire Berkshire stake
Date: 02/28/24 10:47 AM
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No. of Recommendations: 10
Equities: $354bn, take some off for taxes. Say $307bn.
Cash: Jim explained the debt. Cash + fixed income $187bn. Take $50bn off for reserve. $137bn
Earnings: $25.5bn at 16x = $408bn.
Total $852bn
A Share equivalents: 1,441,483
$591/A


FWIW, my method comes up with $603,300 for end-2023 in end-2023 dollars, not so different.

I make no attempt to get the "right" bottom line value number by obsessing over multiples, merely to get a method which is consistent through time and rises at the same rate of "true" value.
With that caveat in mind, it is calculated as follows:
Last four quarters net after-tax income in rails, utilities, manuf/service/retail including Pilot and non-controlled, and a cyclically adjusted estimate of underwriting profit. Sum of those four as stand-in for ALL subsidiary earnings, as the "other" category is small and volatile and investments covered elsewhere.
Each quarter inflation adjusted independently lately!
I slap a multiple of 15 on those earnings.
Investments per share generally at market value, but most equity positions capped at the greater of (21 times earnings) and (half current market value). Mainly this affects Apple.
A penalty of 30% of float as a proxy for the lower returns from having to have a lot of cash all the time. (not a proxy for the amount of cash)
My current estimate of cyclically adjusted underwriting profit is $1.757bn/year after 21% tax. A lot lower than the actual value this year, but a lot higher than the actual value last year.

Jim
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This community has written 22,499 posts about Berkshire Hathaway. The article-length ones it recommended most:
BRK: Why Not XOM? · 62 recs · 2024
Second quarter comments · 60 recs · 2023
Berkshire's Profit Contributors · 58 recs · 2023
Summary of 2Q 2026 · 55 recs · 2026
3Q Summary · 53 recs · 2024
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