Always keep in mind that one million times zero equals zero.
- Manlobbi
Halls of Shrewd'm / US Policy❤
No. of Recommendations: 12
Obviously it will be quite some time before we can fully understand the effect of the attempted assassination on the campaign. But there's little doubt that it's terrible for Democratic chances to hold the WH, principally because it fits perfectly with the race that Trump wanted to run, and decimates the race that Biden wanted to run.
Trump's whole campaign theme is grounded on contrasting a vibrant energetic Trump with a senescent lethargic Biden. They have their issue book to be sure (immigration, inflation, international conflict) - but a core element of their strategy was drawing that contrast. And obviously, his politically perfect response in the few seconds after getting shot just fits that strategy to a T. It turbo-charged that theme.
Meanwhile, Biden's campaign was to portray Trump not merely as a person with bad ideas for the country, but as an individual who was uniquely threatening to democracy. Voters needn't even consider whether they liked Biden or not - all the focus should be on Trump and how terrible he was. And the Democrats would pound, day after day, how terrible Trump was. The debate meltdown had complicated the first part of that strategy, of course - voters were now keenly looking at Biden - but the assassination attempt has crippled the second part of that strategy. If the campaign and its surrogates engage in the same type of rhetoric they were before the shooting, they'll be accused of endangering Trump and encouraging political violence. Every time they bring up January 6th as a catastrophic threat to the Republic, they'll be met with July 13th as an example that political violence isn't only directed at preventing Democrats from taking office, but also at Republicans.
Hence, the vastly improved election odds that hclasvegas mentioned in the other thread. Regardless of the immediate effect on polls and polling, Trump was already winning before the shooting - and this just makes it that much harder for the Democrats to implement their strategy for changing that dynamic.
No. of Recommendations: 4
Trump was already winning before the shooting - and this just makes it that much harder for the Democrats to implement their strategy for changing that dynamic.
Ain't it the truth. Whatever our Hail Mary is, we all gotta unite behind it and put it across.
No. of Recommendations: 4
Whatever our Hail Mary is, we all gotta unite behind it and put it across.
Probably not going to happen. We're very likely looking at a 1996-type election, here.
Back then, the GOP realized a few months out from the election that Dole simply wasn't going to win - so they shifted focus and resources to trying to hold Congress. Dole got crushed in the general election, but the GOP Congressional candidates vastly outperformed the top of the ticket.
Things will be up in the air for the Democrats for a bit, but unless Biden pulls a rabbit out of his hat and manages to unify the party behind him soon, the folks that are angry and feel deceived by him (or his inner circle) are going to be all-too-willing to cut him loose and try to salvage the House and the Senate races in OH/MT/AZ.
No. of Recommendations: 3
Back then, the GOP realized a few months out from the election that Dole simply wasn't going to win - so they shifted focus and resources to trying to hold Congress. Dole got crushed in the general election, but the GOP Congressional candidates vastly outperformed the top of the ticket.
I've already seen a few posts now declaring that Trump has already won. But I'm hoping he's selfish enough that he shares no money down ballot and we have a chance. Not much of a chance, so we need some luck - and so far luck hasn't been on our side.
No. of Recommendations: 2
In AZ, Kari Lake is running again. I suspect she'll get rejected again because she's a fruitcake, and people know it. But she is surprisingly close in the polling, though. Gallego is slightly ahead, but probably within statistical error. Gallego is not as well-known as Lake, at least in part because of her career as a news anchor.
No. of Recommendations: 2
In AZ, Kari Lake is running again. I suspect she'll get rejected again because she's a fruitcake, and people know it. But she is surprisingly close in the polling, though. Gallego is slightly ahead, but probably within statistical error. Gallego is not as well-known as Lake, at least in part because of her career as a news anchor.
Yep. I noticed that Grijalva was one of the early House members that publicly called for Biden to step aside. Gallego said that Biden would have to show AZ voters he was up to the task. Not calling for him to go, but certainly more on the skeptical side of the spectrum than the "I'm with Joe" wing of the party. Obviously, that's not the local pols stepping up to help Biden win a swing state.
No. of Recommendations: 2
so far luck hasn't been on our side. - Lapsody
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Nor has policy...
No. of Recommendations: 1
Things will be up in the air for the Democrats for a bit, but unless Biden pulls a rabbit out of his hat...
You'd think Biden might want to consider stepping aside to avoid being the person who gets blamed for Trump getting elected.
No. of Recommendations: 2
What about Ohio and Montana? What's the read on those two Senate races? I see we have more money in Ohio, but isn't that the Vance state? He should help that race. We gonna lose in Montana?
No. of Recommendations: 1
What about Ohio and Montana? What's the read on those two Senate races? I see we have more money in Ohio, but isn't that the Vance state? He should help that race. We gonna lose in Montana?
No idea. There's very little state polling in those races. RCP has Tester down a bit and Brown up a bit, but with a bare handful of polls since March (only two in OH and one in MT).
No. of Recommendations: 1
No idea. There's very little state polling in those races. RCP has Tester down a bit and Brown up a bit, but with a bare handful of polls since March (only two in OH and one in MT).
OK, I'll try to keep watch. :)
