but it ignores two major real world differences. The first is that RFK would endorse Trump, which is different than him simply not being available as a choice. The second is that state-by-state races matter far more than the national one.

I have always questioned the value of “endorsements”, at least from politicians or others without clout. In the case of a union perhaps it means something, although I recall Nixon getting a huge union vote even as the union leaders were endorsing Democrats. Anyway, I expect the “endorsement”, if it comes, to be almost meaningless.

Second, the state by state races matter most, of course, but then they did prior to the expected withdrawal, so it’s hard to see why that’s a component of your argument. It was before, it is now, it will be if he drops out. Or if he doesn’t. Is there some dramatic difference in some state somewhere I’m not aware of? He’s from California. So what? California goes for Harris either way. He claims he’s from New York. So what? New York goes for Harris either way. Is there some phenomenon about Pennsylvania or Virginia or Nevada or wherever that swings this meaningfully?