No. of Recommendations: 3
losing half your capital in a market meltdown when the market was obviously overvalued would have been an Epic Blunder. Moderately underperforming the hottest, riskiest market in history that has defied all expectations is at most a small embarrassment, and more probably a sign of good judgment.
Although I posted data going back to 1988, Epic Blunder (couldn't resist borrowing from Epic Fury which probably would have been better named Epic Blunder!) was only referring to the last 15 years (circa 2010 - 2025). Other than the very brief Covid dip, there was no market meltdown during this period. The defining feature of this period was the rise of the "Mag 7" from approximately 7-8 percent of the index to about 35% now. It was a well deserved increase in price driven primarily by business performance and rising earnings of the mega caps. A glorious period indeed of great technological achievement and still continuing!
I agree it was impossible to foresee above, especially Price/Sales going north of 3 and profit margins climbing above 12.5%. On the other hand, it's hubris to think we can predict the future.
