No. of Recommendations: 4
Imagine the scenario of Mr Trump manufactures an excuse and implements the steps sufficient to crush the Canadian economy (depression level) as a prerequisite "softening up" step to a planned takeover. Offhand I would put the chances of that much happening above 10%, eight orders of magnitude higher than your estimate.
So you are comparing apples to oranges. My estimate was for the US annexing Canada, not the the odds of a severe trade war.
I guess there are two main scenarios for an annexation
1. Canada joins the US on its own choice - even with severe economic harm (depression) I still view this as incredibly unlikely.
2. US uses military force - I view this as even more unlikely than the first scenario TBH.
Yes the US can make life very difficult for Canada in the short term; but the Canadian identity is very much defined as "Not American", so even in very extreme scenarios I don't see much of a chance for an annexation.
tecmo
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