A stock I mentioned recently isn't cheap enough by this metric: Hershey at $189.41 as I type.

But, FWIW
data from Value Line

EPS growth rate last 10 years = 9.5%/year
EPS growth rate last 5 years = 10%/year (getting a pinch better, not slowing down)
Projected EPS growth rate next 3-5 years = 9.5%/year

Those are all based on their estimate that the current rate of earnings is about $9.51/share/year (two trailing quarters + two quarters estimates)
Today's price is 19.9 times that.
Certainly over 15, but their average annual P/E is 27.5. Some people might think it's fair to pay a premium price for premium goods.

Anyway, if the price goes back to its average multiple, and the earnings grow as fast as that forecast (two big ifs),
then a buyer today would make 38% one time gain on multiples at some point, plus 9.5%/year, plus the dividend yield 2.5%/year.

I haven't bought any [yet], just thinking out loud. So far.

Jim

Berkshire Hathaway FAQ

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