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https://ritholtz.com/2024/05/actions-not-words/

"As if polling isn’t bad enough, there is a specific cohort that has been gaming pollsters for years. A recent poll showed that 17% of respondents believe Joe Biden was responsible for overturning Roe v. Wade(!). I have to call bullshit on this. I don’t care how dumb you think the public is, but you simply cannot believe nearly 1 in 5 are that utterly clueless. These are partisans trolling pollsters for shits & giggles, full stop."

"A couple of years ago, I asked if it made any sense that that current sentiment readings are worse than:

1980-82 Double Dip Recession
1987 Crash
1990 Recession
9/11 Terrorist Attacks
2000-2003 Dotcom implosion
2007-09 Great Financial Crisis
2020 Pandemic Panic
Sorry, but this is also more nonsensical bullshit."

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Lots of good stuff in the link, imo.
I agree with Barry, I haven't paid attention to polling at all.
In the leadup to November, I won't pay any attention to polls, and will be 100% certain to vote.
Most everybody I talk to, in my social sphere, is 100% certainly going to vote, so don't feel a need for any reminders.

there has been very little introspection by pollsters themselves since the trump win.
so given this, some propose a simpler approach :

- given the growth of 'independents' (some estimate <30% are actually unbiased), and ongoing futility of independent polls, simply go on how independents have voted since 2016.
- since registered dems outnumber registered GOP, trump would need nearly all of the GOP to turn out to vote for him, but the never-trump faction is ~25%

as before, the janky electoral college is a wildcard, as it can allow a winner with a record-setting unpopular margin.

so it's established most polls are bad, and those quasi-political are likely ridiculous.
easing back from polling for election prediction, the results from harris-guardian are broadly disturbing :

* 55% believe the economy is shrinking, and 56% think the US is experiencing a recession, though the broadest measure of the economy, gross domestic product (GDP), has been growing.

* 49% believe the S&P 500 stock market index is down for the year, though the index went up about 24% in 2023 and is up more than 12% this year.

* 49% believe that unemployment is at a 50-year high, though the unemployment rate has been under 4%, a near 50-year low.


the weird part here is not that conservatives wrongly believe trump actually did better, but that progressives polled only ~10-20% rates of lower ignorance.
if this does have an impact on voting outcomes, it would probably represent history's biggest gap in prosperity for a losing incumbent.

on the other hand, voters can retrospectively claim they were more concerned about social\geopolitical issues where likely even more ignorant.

Wow!

Our fractured media is at least partly responsible for such ignorance.

* 55% believe the economy is shrinking, and 56% think the US is experiencing a recession, though the broadest measure of the economy, gross domestic product (GDP), has been growing.

* 49% believe the S&P 500 stock market index is down for the year, though the index went up about 24% in 2023 and is up more than 12% this year.

* 49% believe that unemployment is at a 50-year high, though the unemployment rate has been under 4%, a near 50-year low.

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