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- Manlobbi
Halls of Shrewd'm / US Policy
No. of Recommendations: 7
The Iran ceasefire is set to expire tomorrow night, and talks in Islamabad were expected to begin today. However, AP is reporting that JD Vance is still physically in DC:
https://apnews.com/live/iran-war-israel-trump-04-2......which isn't a particularly hopeful sign that this round of talks can get to a deal before the ceasefire expires.
The Administration is reluctant to put Vance on a plane before they know for sure that Iran is going to show up to the talks in Pakistan.
No. of Recommendations: 6
The Administration is reluctant to put Vance on a plane before they know for sure that Iran is going to show up to the talks in Pakistan.
Each side wants to get to Islamabad LAST. Apparently, making the other side wait for them is the game.
It’s the amateur’s game of “who can piss higher on the tree?”.
No. of Recommendations: 0
Each side wants to get to Islamabad LAST. Apparently, making the other side wait for them is the game.
It’s the amateur’s game of “who can piss higher on the tree?”.
Iran has already won that pissing contest. It is a short flight to Pakistan from Iran, but a LONG flight from the US. Spankee lost THAT one long ago--and he knows it.
No. of Recommendations: 8
Each side wants to get to Islamabad LAST. Apparently, making the other side wait for them is the game.
It’s the amateur’s game of “who can piss higher on the tree?”.
I think that's a little bit unfair to them.
Neither side trusts each other. And both sides are trying to manage restive constituencies in their countries. So both sides would be significantly hurt if they agreed to talks, and then the other side backed out.
The U.S. doesn't want to put officials on a plane and then have Iran refuse to show up. That would be embarrassing and damage the Administration's position at home. But similarly, Iran doesn't want to agree to participate in talks and then have President Trump decide that's he's not going to have anyone show up, either - because Iran's government has factions in it that disagree on whether participating in talks at this time makes strategic sense, and that would severely damage the pro-talk faction.
It's not just childish. These are legitimate concerns with real stakes in an environment where neither side trusts the other to engage fairly. It's going to be hard to break through that. Pakistan was able to broker it before, but it seems like they're having trouble overcoming the obstacles now.
No. of Recommendations: 5
random datapoints from interweb...
since 2016, when facing an unpopular phases, trump retreats to preening at MMA\UFC events, bringing his pet-of-the-month.
most recently, it was rubio , and vance was sent packing to deal with failing events (orban, iran, ....)
now i dont really understand why dorks like joe rogan and dana white applaud obese politicians wearing formal business suits and stroll around like they are athletic participants. but this is trump's comfort zone, and as of this moment, rubio seems to be leading any endorsement given for 2028.
No. of Recommendations: 5
...and now the trip is apparently on hold:
A U.S. official said the Vance trip to Islamabad for potential talks had been called off and put on hold, but cautioned that Trump could change his mind at any minute.
The official, who spoke on condition of anonymity to discuss internal administration deliberations, said Trump’s special envoy Steve Witkoff and son-in-law Jared Kushner were expected in Washington on Tuesday afternoon for consultations about how to proceed.https://apnews.com/live/iran-war-israel-trump-04-2...With all three still in the U.S., it's obvious that there won't be an agreement by tomorrow night. Interesting to see if we seek to extend the ceasefire....
