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Investment Strategies / Mechanical Investing
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Author: tecmo ⎊  😊 😞
Number: of 3956 
Subject: Re: Timing: recent highs
Date: 04/21/2025 11:52 AM
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Fair enough. My point was, consider:
1.) ONLY the S&P 500 out of the major indexes has made a recent new high (in February).
2.) The new high on Feb 19 was a single point that was .7% above the prior high a month before that 3.) the prior high late January was a single point that was .1% above the Dec 6 high after 6 weeks.

The earlier chart shows sequences of new highs in chunks daily, an advancing market.
The later phase of this shows choppiness, toppiness and two contextually meaningless, if numerically correct, highs over a period of 2 1/2 months.

The "Bull Trend" can take some time to recover.

Example:

JUL 16 : 5640 (local top)
AUG 05 : 5170 (local bottom) (-9%)
AUG 30 : 5630 (end of the bull?)
SEP 19 : 5700 (bull trend holds)

Now, you could make an argument that the high of 6120 on Feb 19 is impossible to hit in the "next couple of months" - we are down 16% from those highs and the clock is ticking, which would signal the end of the bull trend. The "buy the dip" bounce from Mar 13 to Mar 25 (5510 to 5750), didn't really recover enough to give a lot of confidence either.

tecmo
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tecmo
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