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*                         2/20     2/27     3/6      3/13/23
S&P 500 Index             4079.09  3970.04  4045.64  3861.59
Trailing 12 month PE      23.78    23.12    23.58    22.41
Trail Earnings yield      4.21%    4.33%    4.24%    4.46%
Forward 12 month PE       20.28    19.71    20.12    18.73   
Fwd Earnings Yield        4.93%    5.07%    4.97%    5.34%
90 day tbill yield        4.84     4.86     4.91     5.01
10 year tbond yield       3.82%    3.95%    3.97%    3.70%
Arezi Ratio               1.15     1.12     1.16     1.12
Fed Ratio                 0.77     0.78     0.80     0.69

The Arezi Ratio is the 90 day tbill yield divided by the trailing
earnings yield of the S&P500. A low ratio means that stocks are undervalued.

The 'Fed Ratio' is the 10 year treasury bond yield divided by the
forward estimated operating earnings yield of the S&P500. A low ratio
means that stocks are undervalued. Thus, a ratio of 0.71 for example
means, according to Yardeni, that stocks are cheaper than 'fair value'
by 29%.

The 'S=120-50*Arezi Ratio' formula indicates an allocation of 64%
stocks, 36% cash this week.

Other timing indicators:
The S&P index is below its 200DMA. - Bearish
We are in the Nov-Apr part of the year. - Bullish
The trailing PE ratio of the S&P is above 17. - Bearish
The treasury yield curve is inverted. - Bearish

A composite allocation may start with the Arezi formula and subtract 10%
for each bearish indicator. The current target allocation is 34%.

An alternative allocation, using S=120-30*Arezi Ratio and the first
two of the other timing indicators, produces a target of 76%.

Elan

Haha, so the (really rare) Coppock indicator just fired, and meanwhile the Arezi ratio is looking as bad as I can remember for years and years. (With low interest rates, I seem to remember those target allocations being above 100% most of the time!)

Oh, and most importantly, thanks for posting this! :-)

SA

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