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What [voters in 2024] did hear was Donald Trump promising not just to reduce inflation but to bring prices way back down. And many of them believed him.

Of course, Trump didn’t have a plan, or even a concept of a plan, about how to accomplish this. Instead he imposed tariffs and began deporting immigrant workers, both of which raised prices.

So prices haven’t come down; instead, inflation has accelerated. And the job market has gotten worse. Thanks to the shutdown, we’re not getting official employment numbers, but I’ve been looking at private surveys. One number I find especially striking is the Conference Board’s “labor market differential,” the difference between the percentage of Americans who say jobs are “plentiful” and those who say jobs are “hard to get.” This number is way down, which says that ordinary Americans perceive a very tough job market.

Pretty clearly, many Americans now believe that they were lied to. My guess (we’ll know more in a few days) is that this is especially true for Hispanic voters, who swung to Trump believing that he would deliver prosperity and are swinging hard back to Democrats now that he hasn’t.

It also surely doesn’t help that Trump and his minions keep insisting that everything is great, that there is no inflation and the economy is booming. This doesn’t persuade anyone not in the cult and just makes them look out of touch. Which they are.
——Economist Paul Krugman

Poor Paul Krugman,

He is rooting for the failure of the American economy due to his TDS.

What a shame.

We're reaping the benefits of a weak Fed Chairman who wanted to suck up to his boss more than he wanted to fix the economy.

What Powell and the Fed governors should have done was crank rates up 2-3 points more (and maybe higher than that) than they did a la Paul Volcker in the 1980s. Volcker/Reagan absolutely baked every last dram of the 1970's inflation out of the economy but Powell's Fed didn't do that: they didn't want to tank the job market right before Biden's election so they made almost the worst possible move: they raised rates up just enough to take the edge off of inflation but not eliminate it entirely.

Of course, thanks to decades of piss-poor fiscal policy the US likely CAN'T raise rates much higher than that without making government debt service impossible. We're now at a point where one of the main weapons in the quiver can't be used because of it. Thanks, Swamp Rats.

What Powell and the Fed governors should have done was crank rates up 2-3 points more (and maybe higher than that) than they did a la Paul Volcker in the 1980s. ~The Dope

LOL!
After mastering coronavirus epidemiology, supply chains, the Russia/Ukraine conflict, breastfeeding, nazi salutes, tiki torch carrying, the Israel/Palestine conflict, Argentinian Bailouts,
and the moment of inception...
Dope will now explain Monetary Policy!?
Hysterical! Thanks for the laughs!

What Powell and the Fed governors should have done was crank rates up 2-3 points more (and maybe higher than that) than they did a la Paul Volcker in the 1980s. Volcker/Reagan absolutely baked every last dram of the 1970's inflation out of the economy but Powell's Fed didn't do that: they didn't want to tank the job market right before Biden's election so they made almost the worst possible move: they raised rates up just enough to take the edge off of inflation but not eliminate it entirely.

What everyone on this board told you was TARIFFS WILL INCREASES INFLATION! TARIFFS WILL INCREASE INFLATION! TARIFFS WILL INCREASE INFLATION!

But no, for Dope the problem was Powell sucking up to... Biden - with no mention of Trump or tariffs.

AI Overview
Tariffs are expected to increase inflation, primarily by raising prices on imported goods, with the effect being a one-time price increase rather than continuous monthly pressure. While the overall impact on the inflation rate may be modest, it can be significant for specific tariffed products like furniture and auto parts. The full effect on consumers may be delayed as businesses pass on costs over time.

How tariffs affect inflation

Increased cost of goods: Tariffs raise the price of imported goods, and companies may pass these costs on to consumers, leading to higher prices for certain products.
Delayed price increases: The full impact on consumer prices is often delayed because it takes time for tariffs to move through the supply chain and for businesses to adjust their pricing strategies.
One-time vs. sustained pressure: Tariffs are expected to create a one-time upward adjustment in prices. Once all tariffs are implemented, they should stop generating new inflation pressure, and prices will stabilize at a higher level.
Impact on specific sectors: Industries that rely heavily on imported goods, such as the auto and furniture sectors, are likely to be more affected by tariff-related price hikes.
Partial pass-through: Not all of the tariff cost is always passed on to consumers. Companies may absorb some of the cost to remain competitive, especially if consumer spending is weak or if they have strong profit margins.

What to expect

Higher prices: Consumers should expect higher prices on certain imported goods. The magnitude of the increase depends on how much of the tariff cost businesses decide to pass on.
Continued price pressure: As more tariffs take effect, economists anticipate a continued increase in prices, particularly for imported goods.
Long-term effect: While inflation may rise in the short term, the effect is expected to be a one-time jump in prices rather than a sustained period of high inflation. ME:(Let's hope this happens rather than stagflation.)

What everyone on this board told you was TARIFFS WILL INCREASES INFLATION! TARIFFS WILL INCREASE INFLATION! TARIFFS WILL INCREASE INFLATION!

And yet they haven't. Maybe re-read my post again because you didn't understand it.

https://www.cbsnews.com/news/inflation-trump-tarif...

The Trump tariffs aren't causing U.S. prices to spike. Here's why.
By Megan Cerullo
Updated on: July 1, 2025 / 10:11 AM EDT / CBS News

Despite concerns earlier this year that President Trump's tariffs would cause a renewed bout of inflation, the prices of goods and services across the U.S. have remained relatively stable.

The personal consumption expenditures price index, the Federal Reserve's preferred inflation gauge, rose 2.3% in May, modestly above the central bank's 2% annual target. The May Consumer Price Index rose at an annual rate of 2.4%, cooler than economists expected.

I don't care what you people say as it's almost always dead wrong.

he Trump tariffs aren't causing U.S. prices to spike. Here's why. By Megan Cerullo Updated on: July 1, 2025 / 10:11 AM EDT / CBS News ~The Dope

Hey Dope that article was from July, maybe look at something a bit more recent...

"There's 'overwhelming evidence' tariffs have raised consumer prices, says Bank of America"

https://www.businessinsider.com/tariffs-boosted-co...

Inflation is caused by more money chasing fewer goods, not by price increases on a particular subset of goods.

If tariffs are viewed as a form of tax, longer term, they will either be disinflationary or have a neutral effect.


If somehow tariffs lead to an increase in the money supply and/or in the velocity of money, they may have an inflationary effect.

Does imposing additional taxes in the form of Trump's tariffs increase the money supply overall, or increase the velocity of money? Hard to see how that would be so.

Taxes withdraw money from consumers. Overall, the tariffs mean consumers will have less money to spend. By definition, that should have a deflationary effect--unless whatever the government does with that money increases the overall money supply and/or the velocity of money, which would be inflationary.

If the tariffs collected mean the government has to print less money/goes into less debt than it would have absent the tariffs, it's hard to see how they could be inflationary.

The Bank of America article is superficial. Simply because tariffs increase prices substantially to consumers does not by itself imply that inflation will be the outcome.

If consumers have to spend more of their income on tariffed goods, then by simply arithmetic, they have less money to spend on everything else. So, the overall rate of inflation must remain unchanged.

Now, if there are other factors--such as consumers deciding to take out more consumer debt to compensate for the tariffs while attempting to maintain the same level of overall consumption--then it would be the additional consumer debt that would possibly be inflationary.

But the article you linked doesn't make that connection and doesn't even suggest that issue.

How Tariffs Are Affecting Prices in 2025...

"Our analysis suggests that tariff measures are already exerting measurable upward pressure on consumer prices. The rise in prices beginning in early 2025 coincides closely with tariff developments, and our model-based regressions confirm that these effects are statistically and economically significant."

https://www.stlouisfed.org/on-the-economy/2025/oct...

There's only ever 1 reason for inflation:

The government prints too much money, increasing its supply relative to demand of goods and services.

Again, this is Econ 101 stuff. Stuff liberals don't understand.

There's only ever 1 reason for inflation:

The government prints too much money, increasing its supply relative to demand of goods and services.

Again, this is Econ 101 stuff.

That's not true. There can be lots of reasons for inflation - exogenous increases in demand, exogenous increases to the cost of supply, taxes or surcharges or tariffs or other governmental costs that get factored into the cost of production. All of those things can cause inflation.

They might not have covered that in your Econ 101 (they certainly did in mine, back when I got my econ degree), but it certainly would have been in Econ 102. If you want a refresher, Investopedia has a handy summary. The relevant bit:

Economists classify inflation into three main types: cost-push inflation, driven by rising production costs; demand-pull inflation, caused by strong consumer demand; and built-in inflation, which results from expectations of ongoing price increases. Higher wages, increased demand, and government fiscal policies can all fuel inflation. Central banks closely monitor these trends and may adjust interest rates or monetary policies to keep inflation in check.

https://www.investopedia.com/ask/answers/111314/wh...

Maybe re-read my post

I copied the meat of your post, so I read it, pretending again?

And your article is from July 1. My articles are form late October and November and the Feds and Bank of America disagree with yoo/

AI: Yes, tariffs are causing price increases by November 2025, with evidence showing they are exerting upward pressure on consumer prices and contributing to a rise in the Consumer Price Index. The full impact is still unfolding, as some businesses have not yet passed on all costs, but analysts predict further inflation as more companies shift these rising import costs to consumers END

SNIP Putting It All Together - St Louis Fed

Our analysis suggests that tariff measures are already exerting measurable upward pressure on consumer prices. The rise in prices beginning in early 2025 coincides closely with tariff developments, and our model-based regressions confirm that these effects are statistically and economically significant.

At the same time, the pass-through remains partial; only a portion of the model-predicted effect has materialized so far. This could reflect delays in price adjustments, competitive pressure limiting firms’ ability to raise prices, or expectations that the tariffs may prove temporary.

As we continue to monitor inflation dynamics in the months ahead, understanding the link between trade policy and consumer prices will be essential for assessing the persistence of inflation and the broader implications for economic policy. SNIP


SNIP How Tariffs Are Affecting Prices in 2025
October 16, 2025
https://www.stlouisfed.org/on-the-economy/2025/oct...

There's 'overwhelming evidence' tariffs have raised consumer prices, says Bank of America
Nov 3, 2025, 6:47 AM ET

*Analysts at the Bank of America said tariffs have raised prices for consumers.
*They wrote in a note that consumers have covered about 50% to 70% of the cost of levies to date.
*This suggests tariffs will continue to put "upward pressure" on inflation, they said.

For the Bank of America, President Donald Trump's levies have boosted consumer inflation, and there's no uncertainty about that. SNIP
https://www.businessinsider.com/tariffs-boosted-co...

You loose.

The Bank of America article is superficial.

Really, well I posted a Fed article that says the tariff pressure is there, what about that one? I mean how many institutions will you ignore?

Recession Odds: In April 2025, Polymarket saw the chance of a U.S. recession in 2025 jump to 65%, up from 38% the previous week, largely attributed to the new tariffs and related inflation/slowdown fears.
Inflation Rate: In the wake of new tariff announcements, the probability that the U.S. core inflation rate would remain above 3% jumped to 71%.

Polymarket is a good source for you isn't it?

That's not true

Yes, it is. In the long run, of course.

There can be lots of reasons for inflation - exogenous increases in demand, exogenous increases to the cost of supply, taxes or surcharges or tariffs or other governmental costs that get factored into the cost of production. All of those things can cause inflation.

Those things cause short term increases in prices. Monetary supply causes systemic inflation of the type we're talking about.

Perhaps you should have read further on Investopedia:

https://www.investopedia.com/ask/answers/042015/ho...

Key Takeaways
Inflation occurs when the money supply of a country grows more rapidly than the economic output of a country.
The Federal Reserve changes the money supply by buying short-term securities from banks to inject capital into the economy.
The quantity theory believes that the value of money, and the resulting inflation, are caused by the supply and demand of the currency.
There are situations where increases in the money supply do not cause inflation, but rather other economic conditions, like hyperinflation or deflation, occur instead.
During COVID-19, the Federal Reserve materially increased the nation’s money supply. As a result, the nation experienced higher-than-usual inflation.

I copied the meat of your post, so I read it, pretending again?

Then you didn't understand it.

You lose[sic].

Fixed that for you.
You're talking about spot increases in prices for the specific goods targeted in tariffs. A tariff on bananas has nothing to do with the price of oil, for example. A true inflationary environment affects both when valued iso-dollar.

But nice try. Next time, don't have AI try and do the thinking for you.

You're talking about spot increases in prices for the specific goods targeted in tariffs. A tariff on bananas has nothing to do with the price of oil, for example. A true inflationary environment affects both when valued iso-dollar.

But nice try. Next time, don't have AI try and do the thinking for you.


You are just ignoring reality. The FED disagrees with you across some 16 different good sources, so you casually ignore them mumbling excuses. Inflation was not caused by Biden, it's caused by Trump, his chaos, and his tariffs.

You lose.

Those things cause short term increases in prices. Monetary supply causes systemic inflation of the type we're talking about.

Perhaps you should have read further on Investopedia:

They can all cause systemic inflation of the type we're talking about - because remember, this thread is about the type of inflation caused by tariff policy. Exactly the sort of thing that can trigger a year or two of inflation. And in fact, they can also cause systemic inflation that runs for the longterm, because even short-term bouts of inflation can lead to a perpetual cycle of inflation based on expectations.

The article you cited on Investopedia was explaining how money supply can affect inflation - not that money supply is the only thing that can cause inflation.

Repeatedly saying that something is "Econ 101," as has been done on this thread, isn't the flex that people think it is. It's actually a pretty good indicator that the person making the claim is probably wrong, or at least lacks much knowledge of economics beyond a surface awareness. That's because the stuff you're taught in Econ 101 is the "wrong but useful" stuff. It's a simplified model of economic concepts that's appropriate for beginners, but is typically not how real world economic issues work.

It's like in high school chemistry, when you're taught the Bohr model of the atom (discrete little ball-like electrons orbiting a nucleus). Which is wrong. That's not what the structure of an atom is really like, or how electrons behave. But is the way that intro students can be introduced to key concepts at a time when they are nowhere near ready to learn how quantum physics works. The stuff you're taught in Econ 101 are stylized models of economic principles and how macro- and micro- economics works - but it's simplified to the point of being wrong. It's when you get to Econ 102 and Econ 201 and so on that you learn why those simplified concepts don't accurately describe real-world behaviors.

They can all cause systemic inflation of the type we're talking about - because remember, this thread is about the type of inflation caused by tariff policy.

I don't grant that point. "Inflation" is commonly defined as "a sustained increase in the general level of prices for goods and services, measured as an annual percentage increase. It reflects a gradual loss of purchasing power, indicated by a broad rise in prices over time."

Tariffs on this good or that good don't do that. Only an oversupply of money does.

If somebody wants to argue the price of X or Y is affected by tariffs, then that engenders a discussion about the willingness of importers to either absorb or pass on the cost of tariffs knowing that competition in a local market may be participants that aren't paying tariffs at all. As opposed to inflation which is a systemic condition of the economy.

As far as your point about teaching atomics in chemistry, you're a bit off. The point of teaching Rutherford or Bohr isn't to say "Atoms look like this" it's to

a) share an appreciation for the evolution of the field of chemistry over time, a field that expanded into what we know today as Quantum Mechanics, and
b) introduce to students the principles of protons, neutrons and electrons to prepare them for lessons in molecular bonding, relative electronegativity and chemical formulas.

Understanding those concepts allows a student to better grok why certain elements are more reactive to others and why certain compounds form the way they do. Basic chemistry is the foundation for organic chem, combustion, catalysis, polymerization and a whole bunch of other things.

You are just ignoring reality.

And you've run out of IQ points in which to debate. For you that's ~1.5 replies in any given thread. Go load up another AI model and let it do the thinking for you. Have you tried ChatGPT-5 yet? It might be of help.

For some reason Dope seems to have forgotten about the oil Arab oil embargo cost-push inflation even though he lived through it and it caused 11% inflation by 1974. Dope seems to think that was caused by an oversupply of money, and not by oil being embargoed. Can anyone find a paper that supports that?

And you've run out of IQ points in which to debate.

Insults? Listen, you know what you've been saying isn't true. I think you should use AI to help you come up with your rationalizations for Trump's tariffs. It takes a lot of tariffs to have an effect, but it's having an effect. I was hoping taco would keep it at bay, but it's here. Tariffs plus chaos isn't a great formula.

Insults?

You do little but offer them, so you shouldn't whine when somebody throws them right back at you.

You do little but offer them, so you shouldn't whine when somebody throws them right back at you.

No. You kept forgetting who insults you and who doesn't. You get confused, so I called you out on it, and you mumble, but never remember. So I got tired of it and insulted you back a couple of times. It's part of your shtick, but I notice you get bad when you think your losing.

More of the same.

More of the same.

No. I've been watching you insult Albaby. You're one fucked up guy at times. Shape up.

You're one fucked up guy at times.
Uh, huh. Getting an early start to your hangover, I see.

It's O.K. King Schumer is coming to the rescue and his hangover will be treated FREE OF CHARGE.

Inflation is caused by more money chasing fewer goods, not by price increases on a particular subset of goods.

And as I have pointed out - Are telling me that the inflation that happened in the Arab Oil Embargo wasn't caused by the affect of the oil embargo? Such sophistry. The oil embargo is famous and you lived through it. Thanks for letting us know what your sources are telling you to say.

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