No. of Recommendations: 23
"For those interested, Berkshire's book per share is up 12.2%/year in the same 7 years."
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This is very helpful. Any thoughts or insights on how much IV has increased per year in the last 7 (or 10) years? I imagine IV has increased at a (slightly?) faster rate, in part, because of (a) the stock buybacks during the period (which suppress book value/share but increase IV/share if purchased below IV/share), and (b) the increased earning power of the wholly owned subsidiaries, which are carried at cost in the calculation of book value. But any calculations would be very helpful.
Different methods of analysis will reach somewhat different conclusions, but my conclusion is that intrinsic value per share has risen less than book value per share in this stretch. That's because book value has been pulled up by good performance from the investments side (thanks, Apple), while the operating subs have had a very weak stretch.
In effect, the subs would have to increase earnings per share at the same rate as investments per share, but they haven't.
My figure for investments per share (which has a few adjustments) is up 12.1%/year in the last 7 years. (trailing four quarters compared to trailing four quarters 7 years earlier, no inflation adjustment)
The comparable figure for rails: +2.7%/year per share
For utilities: +8.1%/year per share
For manufacturing/service/retail: +8.4%/year per share
(Each of those figures includes a roughly 2%/year tailwind from share count reduction).
The net earnings from the sum of those three divisions, adjusted for inflation, is up +2.9%/year per share.
Consequently my overall metric for share value is up nominal 10.1%/year (1.1%/year less than book per share). Adjusting for inflation, my value metric is up inflation + 6.1%/year in the last 7 years.
As a side note, my metric does a cyclical adjustment on underwriting profit, so it's very smooth and therefore the specific choice of starting date doesn't change the conclusion very much.
Jim