No. of Recommendations: 14
sometimes it's best "to do nothing"
Sounds like sage advice.
The forex markets are, within the finance world, the closest thing to a random number generator that I've encountered.
To be honest I've made literally millions doing forex trades, and it scares the heck out of me. I don't do that any more. Being lucky is better than being smart, and it's wonderful to finally realize you were lucky and stop pretending you were smart.
There are billions of dollars of very smart money out there looking at every possible fundamental and trying to predict the forex markets. Liquidity is almost infinite and trading costs are essentially zero, so it's the perfect playground for them. There are almost no amateurs playing at any size, so nonsensical overshoots are rare. (other than some central banks that are not profit motivated, sometimes). So if you think you know better than the consensus of that crowd, go ahead!
I have more of my cash in sterling at the moment than anything else, by a small margin. Maybe it will have been a good idea, maybe it won't, but I'm aware I really don't know.
The most primitive of techniques is that the major currency with the highest short term interest rate rises the most. At the moment, that's GBP. But that rule is only right maybe 55% of the time. Meh, some casinos make a living with a smaller edge than that.
Jim
