"I'm not so sure that the Rule #1 and the 'no forecasting of macro events' rule get him off the hook for 2008 and 2020, though. If you like "be greedy when others are fearful", you actually have to buy when others really are fearful, and there's usually some good reason to be fearful. You can only be contrarian if you are making a sort of market forecast, the forecast that says that Mr Market's pessimism is overblown. In retrospect, 2008-2009 and early 2020 were great times to be greedy, not fearful along with the crowd, and if you can just quote Rule #1 every time the market is in turmoil, then the aphorism doesn't mean much. Or at least the "be greedy when others are fearful" half of it."

I think DTB has this right.

There has to be obvious value available in the market, and there has to be confidence that Berkshire is in sound shape in order for it to take advantage of such opportunities.

I think 2020 can be forgiven in part because of the situation Berkshire Hathaway found itself in with uncertainty about many of its operating businesses and how much its insurance businesses could be on the hook for. Buffet also found himself with fewer options than usual to deploy money as a financier of last resort.