Hi, Shrewd!        Login  
Shrewd'm.com 
A merry & shrewd investing community
Best Of BRK.ABest OfAll BoardsThe Shrewd’m WeeklyLearn to InvestHow to Become Shrewd
Search
Shrewd'm.com Merry shrewd investors
Search
Best Of BRK.ABest OfAll BoardsThe Shrewd’m WeeklyLearn to InvestHow to Become Shrewd


The week's question
In December 2024, in the thread "Re: BRK: Why Not XOM?", BreckHutHigh asked the members: "What about the long road trips with kids?" This week it is put to everyone again. The button below opens the small thread re-asking it - read what others have said so far, then give your own answer as an ordinary reply.
Answer this questionContinue to Shrewd'mThis note won't appear again
Stocks A to Z / Stocks B / Berkshire Hathaway (BRK.A)
Unthreaded | Threaded | Whole Thread (14) |
Author: DTB   😊 😞
Number: of 21944 
Subject: Re: Buffett's stock selection screen
Date: 11/08/23 2:22 PM
Post New | Post Reply | Report Post | Recommend It!
No. of Recommendations: 10
Jim's screen included a criterion of EPS growth over last 5 years > 7%.

One can argue that earnings are unlikely to grow over the next 5 years if they haven't grown over the past 5 years, but that wasn't the Buffet prescription. If he wanted to look at growth over the past 5 years, he would have said so


Jim did include past EPS growth as a criterion, but he also used Value Line's prediction of eps growth in the next 3-5 years:

* EPS growth last 5 years > 7%
* Forecast EPS growth next 3-5 years > 7%

Buffett is famously not interested in investing in turnarounds, so I suspect that he would agree that if you haven't had solid eps growth over the last 5 years, you're not a very good candidate for having reliable future eps growth, either. The greater problem is that Value Line is almost certainly not as good as Buffett at predicting that future growth. But it's better than nothing, unless we want to do the Buffett/Combs exercise ourselves.

Which we could do.

Here's one that I think fits pretty well, maybe others could add to the list: IBKR, current share price $80. Trailing P/E 14.66, forward P/E 13.18, historical earnings per share in the last 7 years are $5.50, $3.75, $3.24, $2.42, $2.10, $2.28, $1.07, $1.25 and $0.78 (easily besting the 7% criterion or Jim's more stringent 11% criterion), annual client equity growth of 20% over the last 5 years (and at similar levels for much longer period than that), improving margins (they are heavily automated, so new clients do not require commensurate new spending), conservatively managed, strong balance sheet, strong moat (being heavily automated, they are a low-cost provider; their overall cost to investors is unbeatable, if you include interest rates paid on balances, low commissions, low cost forex, etc.) It's a bit on the small side for Buffett (market cap $34b, of which 3/4 is owned by management, mostly by the founder, Thomas Peterffy.)

I just bought a few more shares, it's my #3 position after Fairfax. (Fairfax could be on the list too.) But it would be lovely to see other ideas of stocks people are familiar with that fulfill the Buffett/Combs watercooler criteria.

dtb
Post New | Post Reply | Report Post | Recommend It!
Print the post
Members reply directly to DTB here — and replies get answered. Reading is free; so is joining the conversation. Join Shrewd'm »
This community has written 21,448 posts about Berkshire Hathaway. The article-length ones it recommended most:
BRK: Why Not XOM? · 62 recs · 2024
Second quarter comments · 60 recs · 2023
Berkshire's Profit Contributors · 57 recs · 2023
Summary of 2Q 2026 · 54 recs · 2026
3Q Summary · 53 recs · 2024
Unthreaded | Threaded | Whole Thread (14) |


Announcements
Berkshire Hathaway FAQ
Contact Shrewd'm
Contact the developer of these message boards.

Best Of BRK.A | Best Of | Favourites & Replies | All Boards | Followed Shrewds | Open Questions | Moving a community