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The week's question
In December 2024, in the thread "Re: BRK: Why Not XOM?", BreckHutHigh asked the members: "What about the long road trips with kids?" This week it is put to everyone again. The button below opens the small thread re-asking it - read what others have said so far, then give your own answer as an ordinary reply.
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Investment Strategies / Mechanical Investing
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Author: Aussi   😊 😞
Number: of 6132 
Subject: Re: Have Bear Catchers worked post-discovery?
Date: 03/21/24 3:14 PM
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JRB

In that case, what was the original intent for assigning weighted values (i.e., 4 for DBE, 2 for NH/NL, 1 for SMA), giving a range of 0 to 7, instead of a value of one for each indicator, giving a range of 0 to 3? It seems to me that weighted values complicate the system if they don't have any meaning.



There was no intent to assign weighted values. The reason is below.

From GTR1 for Dummies.


With 3 binary signals, BCC can have 8 possible values (2^3). BCC is equal to 1 times Bear Catcher I's state, plus 2 times Bear Catcher II's state, plus 4 times Bear Catcher III's state, which produces an integer from 0 to 7, each corresponding to one of the eight possible states that all three Bear Catchers can be in. The following table summarizes the eight states and the value of BCC:
BCC BCI BCII BCIII
Value SMA Slope NH/NL Ratio Dying Bullish Euphoria
0 Bear Bear Bear
1 Bull Bear Bear
2 Bear Bull Bear
3 Bull Bull Bear
4 Bear Bear Bull
5 Bull Bear Bull
6 Bear Bull Bull
7 Bull Bull Bull
The next table summarizes the values you can set BCC equal to in backtests to require certain Bear Catcher states:
BCC Bear Catcher State
1!3!5!7 BCI Bullish
2!3!6!7 BCII Bullish
4!5!6!7 BCIII Bullish
> 0 At least one Bullish
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