Stocks A to Z / Stocks B / Berkshire Hathaway (BRK.A) ❤
No. of Recommendations: 2
No. of Recommendations: 2
I remember reading this article from 2018 (that's seven (7) years ago, if you're counting):
Bracing Yourself for a Possible Near-Term Melt-Up
(A Very Personal View)
Jeremy Grantham
https://www.gmo.com/globalassets/articles/viewpoin...Among his conditions:
Right party in power (just sayin’)
...
The data speaks for itself. Its statistical significance is another matter entirely.
Extreme expensiveness
At last, we come to value. Extreme overvaluation plays a huge role in bubbles breaking: It is a
necessary precondition. The more overvalued, the merrier. But, for judging the extent that bubbles
will overrun fair value and for timing the break, value, sadly, is largely irrelevant. Thus, it is a necessary
but absolutely not sufficient condition. Exhibit 13 shows how handsomely the current cycle already
passes the necessary condition
Grantham has been banging that same drum for a while now. One day he will be correct.
Chris Bloomstran's latest letter devotes many pages to the bubble.
Buffett has a more-than-normal amount of cash...
7 years of SPY (+160%) & BRK.B (+145%):
https://stockcharts.com/freecharts/perf.php?SPY,BR...
No. of Recommendations: 0
" Grantham has been banging that same drum for a while now. One day he will be correct.
Chris Bloomstran's latest letter devotes many pages to the bubble.
Buffett has a more-than-normal amount of cash..."
WAYYYYYYYY to many experts are very cautious, BUY BUY BUY !!
but not on margin.
No. of Recommendations: 3
BTW, I'm one of the brk experts who concluded that if Buffett refused to buy brkb at 440ish, it was unlikely to visit 500ish by june 20Th 2025, hence I'm short calls on 80 % of my stock. I forgot Uncle Warren has no idea how to value his life's work. My bad.
No. of Recommendations: 1
No. of Recommendations: 2
if Buffett refused to buy brkb at 440ish, it was unlikely to visit 500ish by june 20Th 2025, hence I'm short calls on 80 % of my stock. I forgot Uncle Warren has no idea how to value his life's work.
But there is more than one reason he might not buy BRK stock! One reason is that he thinks it is "too expensive" but another reason is that he may think that OTHER things are also too expensive and might become less expensive soon and be prime opportunities to buy. What is most likely is that it is a combination of a bunch of things he may think:
1. He thinks Berkshire is too high to buy back right now.
2. He thinks everything is a bit too high.
3. He thinks everything might drop soon, but that other stuff he likes will drop more than Berkshire will drop.
4. He thinks getting 4+% while he waits is sufficient for now.
5. He thinks it is "fair" to leave a huge chunk of cash for his successor to deploy, to put his own imprint on the portfolio, and is planning on retiring sometime soon (when you are 94 1/2, it is by definition soon no matter what).
6. ?
No. of Recommendations: 21
BTW, I'm one of the brk experts who concluded that if Buffett refused to buy brkb at 440ish, it was unlikely to visit 500ish by june 20Th 2025, hence I'm short calls on 80 % of my stock. I forgot Uncle Warren has no idea how to value his life's work. My bad.
Of course, Buffett knows how to value Berkshire. Mr. Market is in his manic phase. This too shall pass.
BTW, all this talk of puts and calls sounds nuts to me. Buy when it's cheap, hold the stock. That has worked for me so far.
