Hi, Shrewd!        Login  
Shrewd'm.com 
A merry & shrewd investing community
Best Of MIBest OfAll BoardsThe Shrewd’m Weekly ¤Learn to InvestHow to Become Shrewd
Search
Shrewd'm.com Merry shrewd investors
Search
Best Of MIBest OfAll BoardsThe Shrewd’m Weekly ¤Learn to InvestHow to Become Shrewd


The week's question
In December 2024, in the thread "Re: BRK: Why Not XOM?", sykesix asked the members: "What do you do if you arrive early at movie besides go to the snack bar?" This week it is put to everyone again. The button below opens the small thread re-asking it - read what others have said so far, then give your own answer as an ordinary reply.
Answer this questionContinue to Shrewd'mThis note won't appear again
Investment Strategies / Mechanical Investing
Unthreaded | Threaded | Whole Thread (1) |
Author: ced1106 ✶  😊 😞
Number: of 6371 
Subject: October Sentiment: CNN Fear and Greed Index
Date: 10/16/26 4:14 PM
Post New | Post Reply | Report Post | Recommend It!
No. of Recommendations: 13
CNN Fear and Greed Index just posted Extreme Fear today. Fear and Extreme Greed are leading indicators. I've been using this index for buying (not selling) for several years. Usually, but not always, when it hits Extreme Fear, then the market will have a *local* bottom in a week or so. I'd say use it to shove additional money into the market, in addition to your usual strategy. I don't find Extreme Greed as useful -- the market may take one or two months before hitting a top. You can use Supertrend, a lagging indicator, to note when you've recently passed the top of a local top.

MacroMicro has some historical data of the S&P vs. CNN Fear and Greed Index. You can see that this local low is not lower than the March 2026 and April 2025 lows, but both of those lows were at Extreme Fear. We also had Extreme Fear on November 2025 which was not a local low.
en.macromicro.me - Cnn fear and greed

Some other sentiment indicators:
* AAII Sentiment Survey.
* Bank of America Bull and Bear Indicator: The indicator slid to 7.4 down from 8.1 (and a summer peak of 9.7 in August). Use Google Gemini AI to find this proprietary info.
- Currently, both of these indicators are *not* "agreeing with" the CNN Fear and Greed Index.

****

October is a common month for both crashes and rebounds. Summer peaks, fall has a fall, then winter picks up. That means in late September through early November, there's usually a *local* low, and the market goes up at the end of the year. It's already midway through October, so might as well presume this low will be the October / fall low.

I'd still recommend DCA over timing the market, but if you have a variable cash cushion so have some extra money to stick into the market, might as well do it whenever there's a local low. I'm using it to move RMD stocks, though a better time was during a previous Extreme Fear, back in March 2026.
Post New | Post Reply | Report Post | Recommend It!
Print the post
Members reply directly to ced1106 here — and replies get answered. Reading is free; so is joining the conversation. Join Shrewd'm »
This community has written 6,354 posts about Mechanical Investing. The article-length ones it recommended most:
Dividend investing · 52 recs · 2025
Non-Mag7 screen · 34 recs · 2025
OT - Div yields and returns · 32 recs · 2024
Using AI to generate backtesting programs · 30 recs · 2025
Rankings for 19Dec2022 · 29 recs · 2022
Unthreaded | Threaded | Whole Thread (1) |


Announcements
Mechanical Investing FAQ
Contact Shrewd'm
Contact the developer of these message boards.

Best Of MI | Best Of | Favourites & Replies | All Boards | Followed Shrewds | Open Questions | Moving a community | Privacy