The fact of the matter is that there needs to be 60 votes in the Senate to pass anything and until the democrats break ranks, they're the ones continuing to vote not to have the government open.

Right, but that changes once we hit November 21.

At that point, the CR that's in the Senate disappears. It only runs through November 21 - so if it isn't passed by November 21, it becomes a nullity.

If that happens, we're back in the House. It's no longer up to Democrats in the Senate to do anything (or Republicans in the Senate, for that matter). It's then up to the House again.

But it's highly unlikely that Johnson can repeat his feat in getting a clean CR through the House again. He was able to do it last time because Trump was able to knock the heads of the Freedom Caucus holdouts who normally cause problems with a CR.

I don't think he can do it again. The math is even a little tighter - I think (though I'm not sure) that Greene and Massie alone can kill a CR if they don't like it, assuming that there aren't any Democratic votes of course. And I think there's probably a few more Rep reps that might share Greene's position.

Normally, this would lead to some prospect of a deal being cut. The GOP now has their own ticking clock on when they want/need to get the current CR passed - so with both sides now having something to lose, it should create the space for a deal. The problem, though, is that there's no one with the credibility to actually strike that kind of a deal. The Democrats would have to go first (ie. vote for the current CR) - but they can't cut a deal with Thune and Johnson (if even Johnson were willing) without having Trump agree as well, and they probably won't ever trust Trump enough for that to matter.

So I think yes, we're probably shut down until Johnson's hand is forced - which would be November 21, or perhaps some time earlier that week.