A message board, a digital mine, where Shrewds gather, for fortune design.
- Manlobbi
Halls of Shrewd'm / US Policy
No. of Recommendations: 12
Bloomberg calculated the cost of Mad King Donald's trade war based on the cargo on the OOCL Violet, a shipping vessel carrying thousands of containers full of goods bound for the US and it ain't pretty.
When the ship reached California, it carried cargo with a total estimated value of at least $564 million, according to detailed bills of lading data from IHS Markit. About 40% of the goods were likely subject to the new 145% rate, according to Bloomberg News estimates. The data suggests importing companies face at least $417 million in new tariffs for all goods on the ship. That’s on top of preexisting import fees.The cargo on board the Violet? Consumer goods and industrial supplies including 5.7 million pounds of Chinese-sourced knitted apparel, car parts, plastic products, fish, sneakers, forklifts, latex medical gloves, car windshields, pasta, wheelchairs and bras.
Thank God these tariffs according to Mad King Donald are going to eliminate federal income taxes for Americans earning less than $200,00 a year: “We’re going to be cutting taxes and it’s possible we’ll do a complete tax cut.”
Me, I'm tired of all this winning.
Gift link:
https://www.bloomberg.com/graphics/2025-china-ship...https://economictimes.indiatimes.com/news/internat....
No. of Recommendations: 4
Thank God these tariffs according to Mad King Donald are going to eliminate federal income taxes for Americans earning less than $200,00 a year: “We’re going to be cutting taxes and it’s possible we’ll do a complete tax cut.”
Trump is a Dunning-Kruger idiot, that's obvious, but he seems to be advised by nothing but equally idiotic economic bozos.
What a clown car of an administration.
I've seen this sad situation play out in a workplace I was involved in. When a narcissistic and insecure manager insists on hiring nothing but yes men and women and hates to have anyone around him who he perceives as knowing more than him, disaster ensues. Welcome to the Trump regime.
No. of Recommendations: 3
Honestly, I'm a bit lost at this point. He announces tariffs, then delays implementing them, then implements them, then reverses the implementations, then carves out exceptions...etc, etc, etc.
At this point, is there a relatively concise list of tariffs that
actually are in place today? I am aware that they (Congress and the Felon) let expire an exemption (or loophole) for "small stuff" (under $800):
https://www.nytimes.com/2025/05/01/business/trump-...But that's all I'm pretty certain is in place.
No. of Recommendations: 3
Trump is a Dunning-Kruger idiot, that's obvious, but he seems to be advised by nothing but equally idiotic economic bozos.
Does the Felon strike you as someone who wants people with their own opinions to challenge him? A lot of leaders want that, because they know they don't know everything, and a contrarian may think of something they didn't. The Felon wants yes-men and sycophants who worship the very ground he walks on. If someone disagrees with him, they are a "very stupid person", and will get fired post-haste.
Yes-men and sycophants tend to be morons, idiots, and bozos.
So this is no surprise. It's how you get a Secretary of Defense who has no clue about OPSEC, military matters, and pretty much anything else. He was a clueless talking head who praised the Felon for years, and got selected for SOD because of it.
No. of Recommendations: 2
the thing is, there seems no need to track any tariff EO that has not been completely revoked. (e.g., probably the only reason for a visit by canada's mark carney)
- there are little experienced career staff to discuss wording and legalities to produce a NEW trade document that may get signed (whatever value team trump signatures may have)
- logistics brokers are struggling with thousand of nation-specific rules regarding pauses, exemptions, reversals.
if the IT system is pre-cloud, forget global programmatic entry and updates.
- there is no indication that custom inspectors and enforcement collectors are staffed up for the increased complexity above...and may have even been cut.
on the plus side, a steady cut of chinese imports by 50% will alleviate some bottlenecks.
frankly, smuggling seems not worth the effort, as most items will probably get through at prior (or random) rules.
No. of Recommendations: 4
its not about tariffs, its never really been about tariffs, its a test to see who bends the knee and kisses the ring.
thats all any of his policies have been about. he is a bully, a toxic narcissist and a sociopath. The game is power and personal gain. Dont expect anything to make sens ein any other way. It never has and it never will.
No. of Recommendations: 18
its not about tariffs, its never really been about tariffs, its a test to see who bends the knee and kisses the ring.
thats all any of his policies have been about. he is a bully, a toxic narcissist and a sociopath. The game is power and personal gain. Dont expect anything to make sens ein any other way. It never has and it never will.
It can be both things.
Trump fancies himself a dealmaker, but he has a very limited skill-set. Most of his deals involve finding counterparties who lack either alternatives or information, getting them into very vulnerable positions where they have no choice but to accept a very one-sided deal, hammer them to increase the costs of not reaching an agreement, and then identify the maximum pain point they can handle to extract the most value for himself. It's a deal-making style that involves dominating the other party, rather than finding a mutually beneficial outcome for both sides where the other party wants to engage.
It's a pattern we've seen throughout his public life, and it seems to fit his business career as well. When he's in a position to impose a deal on the other party, he's very skilled at handling it. His counterparties are victims more than bargainers, and he's exceptional at squeezing them and ratcheting up the pain. But when he's in an actual negotiation, dealing with folks that are strong or have alternatives or have limits that prevent them from agreeing to a bad deal...well, Trump is just lost.
Hence his tariff strategy. He assumed that other countries would capitulate, allowing him to do the types of "deals" he knows how to do. But that didn't happen, and now he's kind of at sea. No one's offering him anything that will materially improve the US' trade position, and he doesn't have the skills or the temperament to actually negotiate to a better outcome.
It looks like he's going to try to fall back on what he would have done if he hadn't been so wrong about the state of play - just declare an outcome that he will unilaterally impose and call it a "deal" - but that's not likely to work. He's going to have to come to the table with our major trading partners, because he can't afford the economic pain; and because he's botched things so badly over the last two months, it's not going to end well.
No. of Recommendations: 6
AlBaby
His counterparties are victims more than bargainers,...
This statement you make above , up to tariffs I fully agree with. I only "know" trump since the first primaries of 1.0/ I taped them all. I was convinced he had some entity providing info on other candidates , I concluded it was the Mafia originally , but then I added in Russian interests. I rewatched those debates many times, as it shocked me how he demolished by bullying and threats his opponents , esp. in the republican party. I still believe he had access to non public info . Rubio was my clearest example. and just look at him now, fully bent over, and grovelling.
On tariffs, it is possible that he believes he is such a skilled negotiator, and as you rightly remark.. e is now saying "I decide when its a deal" . , "we dont need to sign anything" " I might not publicize all the deals I've done "...its full on over reach and is typical of a narcissist who believes that everyone else is somehow "lesser" , The cruelty he enjoys is sociopathic , and this is actually what his cult enjoys as well.
I think you are willing to cut him a little more slack than I am, because my fear to date unchanged , is that if we don't call it out in clear and brief terms , we are forever doomed to fail. His megaphone is way bigger than the opposition , and his stupidity may well damage us irreversibly ,more than even so far.
always appreciate your nuanced responses, though we may disagree that the time for that is past. As you yourself have noted, and demonstrated on this board , tragically your previous patience and nuance , has not moved the needle of others understanding... and that is not your responsibility to bare.
best wishes ,
No. of Recommendations: 8
I think you are willing to cut him a little more slack than I am, because my fear to date unchanged , is that if we don't call it out in clear and brief terms , we are forever doomed to fail. His megaphone is way bigger than the opposition , and his stupidity may well damage us irreversibly ,more than even so far.
I'm not cutting him slack - he clearly has severe limitations.
He also has some significant skills in making "deals." His business success has come from being good at identifying and accessing vulnerable counterparties, success at exploiting their weak position, and making good risk-taking choices. Note: having one or more of your companies go bankrupt doesn't mean you're not good at making good risk-taking, because if you can put most of the consequences of failure on your creditors and not you personally, taking high risks that are likely to fail is often the optimum choice.
However, he doesn't have another gear. If he's not dealing with a vulnerable counterparty, he doesn't have the skills necessary to actually negotiate and get to a deal. He can't figure out the other side's goals and interests, he can't prioritize his own goals and interests, he can't identify mutually beneficial solutions - he can't add enough value to a deal to make it work for both parties, rather than just himself. It's why he failed utterly to get his agenda through Congress during his first term except the tax cuts that everyone in the GOP wanted on their own. That's why we still have Obamacare and never got Infrastructure Week passed - Trump didn't know how to cut a deal if he couldn't just set the terms and force the other side to agree. It's why he's floundering in reaching a deal in Gaza or Ukraine (though to be fair, anyone would be hard pressed to cut a deal in Ukraine, and the Palestinian-Israeli conflict has crushed far better negotiators than he).
He foolishly thought the US had such a strong hand in a trade dispute with our trading partners that he could do what he's good at. Now that's failed. The counterparties he needs to deal with aren't vulnerable enough to negotiate the way he knows how to negotiate; the ones that are that vulnerable (poor Lesotho!) don't matter enough to bother with. He's going to try to do what he does anyway, and just impose a deal. But if all you have is a sledgehammer, that window installation isn't going to go well.
No. of Recommendations: 6
always appreciate your nuanced responses, though we may disagree that the time for that is past. As you yourself have noted, and demonstrated on this board , tragically your previous patience and nuance , has not moved the needle of others understanding
Al has previously said that his goal with these [very!] patient discussions is not to improve the other party's understanding, but to improve his own understanding of the other party. And I suspect that he has been reasonably successful at that. He seems to have a litigator's skill at questioning - never accusatory, but constantly asking questions and subtly (and occasionally not so subtly) pointing out inconsistencies.
Let's put it this way. I never want to be cross-examined or deposed by him. NEVER.
--Peter
No. of Recommendations: 7
Note: having one or more of your companies go bankrupt doesn't mean you're not good at making good risk-taking, because if you can put most of the consequences of failure on your creditors and not you personally, taking high risks that are likely to fail is often the optimum choice.
Absolutely true, but to continue the analogy- you might want to ask, as I’m sure you already have………
Who are the creditors of the United States?
No. of Recommendations: 2
Who are the creditors of the United States?
If by the United States you mean the federal government, it's mostly domestic entities, who have about 70% of the federal debt. Not sure what happens if you zero out the debt that's owned by the federal government, which is an IOU written from one account to the other in the same entity.
No. of Recommendations: 1
When he's in a position to impose a deal on the other party, he's very skilled at handling it. His counterparties are victims more than bargainers, and he's exceptional at squeezing them and ratcheting up the pain.
I was trying to think of RE deals where a buyer would be in this position, but it was easier to understand getting construction companies to overextend themselves, and/or to accept lower than the agreed contracts amounts - worried that they'll get nothing or less than the amount he's offering now. That everyone should know he's done in spades - especially on little guys.
One other would be to fake a higher occupancy on his condos to induce purchases at higher prices while simultaneously stiffing the contractors. The purchasers find themselves with a higher portion of the maintenance and operating costs lowering the value of their property and draining cash.
In some parts of the IRS code, RE developers can be forgiven a debt and not have to declare it as income. Don't know if it applies, but I suspect it does.
It's all there, he's unfit and floundering around playing to his base to pay them off for keeping him out of jail and continuing his grift.
No. of Recommendations: 1
I was trying to think of RE deals where a buyer would be in this position
Russians wanting to launder dirty money....
No. of Recommendations: 1
I was trying to think of RE deals where a buyer would be in this position
Russians wanting to launder dirty money...
You really think the Russians were victims and that Trump squeezed them and ratcheted up the pain?
OP's description of the position:
When he's in a position to impose a deal on the other party, he's (Trump) very skilled at handling it. His counterparties are victims more than bargainers, and he's exceptional at squeezing them and ratcheting up the pain.
No. of Recommendations: 1
You really think the Russians were victims and that Trump squeezed them and ratcheted up the pain?
Spankee *really desperately* needed the money. There were very few OTHER options for the Russians to launder SUBSTANTIAL amounts of cash. Buying pseudo-high-end real estate would be one rational way to do it.
