No. of Recommendations: 11
It wouldn't be insider trading, since there's no material non-public information that he owed any fiduciary obligations on...
Both John Oliver and Perun have covered this market betting. Perun approached it from a defense perspective, which IS a big deal. Insiders betting on an attack (for example)? They are motivated to either make it happen, or make it not happen, because of the bet. And it telegraphs what the insiders are planning to do to our enemy. Which is why, I believe, some military insiders are being prosecuted as we speak (write?).
As for attending the SOU address? Yeah, who cares. That's nothing. Betting that we're going to bomb Karg Island (for example), and being in a position to know/influence it, is a big deal.
