No. of Recommendations: 2
Total return before taxes in the 7 years starting in the middle of 1931 was -15.8%/year compounded for the cap-weight predecessor of the S&P 500
I'm not sure I understand this. GTR1's approximation of the S&P {!S5T}, held continuously from 19310630 to 19380630, shows a CAGR of 0.4% over the period. Equal weight (!S5TE), for what it's worth, is said to have returned 2.58%.
I asked Google AI "What is the worst seven year period for real return for the S&P500 since 1926?" and it replied that "The worst 7-year rolling real (inflation-adjusted) return period for the S&P 500 (and its predecessor index) since 1926 occurred from December 1967 through December 1974." It went on to say that the nominal annualized return in that period was -1.6% per year, and that inflation-adjusted return is -7.9% per year.
Baltassar
