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The week's question
In December 2024, in the thread "Re: BRK: Why Not XOM?", BreckHutHigh asked the members: "What about the long road trips with kids?" This week it is put to everyone again. The button below opens the small thread re-asking it - read what others have said so far, then give your own answer as an ordinary reply.
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Stocks A to Z / Stocks B / Berkshire Hathaway (BRK.A)
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Author: sykesix   😊 😞
Number: of 21944 
Subject: Re: US EU trade deal on energy
Date: 08/04/25 2:17 PM
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Too bad it is not possible to make any more LNG terminals or expand existing terminals.
So sad.


Of course it is possible, but according to the White House the $750 billion in exports will be completed by 2028, less than two and a half years from now. I don't know much about LNG terminals specifically, but usually large capital projects like this take a long time. Plus, the US has to develop all the gas capacity to be exported. That times some time too. I'm not an expert, but I have to agree with the industry analysts who think this goal is unlikely.

whitehouse.gov - Fact sheet the united states and european union reach massive trade deal

That said, the EU wants to wean itself off Russian natural gas for obvious reasons. I asked Perplexity about the price between US LNG exports and Russian natural gas:

U.S. LNG is currently exported at a lower unit price ($8.14–$8.44/MMBtu) than the actual European spot market or Russian pipeline gas arriving in Europe ($11.20–$11.80/MMBtu), excluding shipping and regasification costs. However, some U.S. cargoes sold at spot can fetch closer to TTF prices, depending on the contract structure.

So, the EU agrees to buy something they are already highly motivated to buy. This has to be the easiest deal in the history of deals. Keep in mind that Canadian energy imports to the US have a tariff of 10%, so US production will likely backfill some of that demand and won't be available for export. So the politicians are promising a clearly unrealistic timeline.

One other thing I also thought was interesting/unusual about this deal. As we know, most US manufacturers rely heavily on parts and even final assembly from Canada and Mexico. Which as far as I can tell are currently 35% and 25%, respectively on most things. The EU escaped with only 15% down from the proposed 30%, and as far as I can tell made no significant concessions.
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This community has written 21,448 posts about Berkshire Hathaway. The article-length ones it recommended most:
BRK: Why Not XOM? · 62 recs · 2024
Second quarter comments · 60 recs · 2023
Berkshire's Profit Contributors · 57 recs · 2023
Summary of 2Q 2026 · 54 recs · 2026
3Q Summary · 53 recs · 2024
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