No. of Recommendations: 13
* 10/12 10/19 10/26 11/2/26
S&P 500 Index 7811.54 7659.44 7623.68 7580.07
Trailing 12 month PE 26.50 26.42 26.15 25.86
Trail Earnings yield 3.77% 3.79% 3.82% 3.87%
Forward 12 month PE 19.17 18.94 18.65 18.29
Fwd Earnings Yield 5.22% 5.28% 5.36% 5.47%
90 day tbill yield 4.25 4.26 4.22 4.16
10 year tbond yield 5.24% 5.09% 5.00% 4.94%
Arezi Ratio 1.13 1.12 1.10 1.08
Fed Ratio 1.00 0.96 0.93 0.90
The Arezi Ratio is the 90 day tbill yield divided by the trailing
earnings yield of the S&P500. A low ratio means that stocks are undervalued.
The 'Fed Ratio' is the 10 year treasury bond yield divided by the
forward estimated operating earnings yield of the S&P500. A low ratio
means that stocks are undervalued. Thus, a ratio of 0.71 for example
means, according to Yardeni, that stocks are cheaper than 'fair value'
by 29%.
The 'S=120-50*Arezi Ratio' formula indicates an allocation of 66%
stocks, 34% cash this week.
Other timing indicators:
The S&P index is above its 200DMA. - Bullish
We are in the Nov-Apr part of the year. - Bullish
The trailing PE ratio of the S&P is above 17. - Bearish
The treasury yield curve is normal. - Bullish
A composite allocation may start with the Arezi formula and subtract 10%
for each bearish indicator. The current target allocation is 56%.
An alternative allocation, using S=120-30*Arezi Ratio and the first
two of the other timing indicators, produces a target of 88%.
Elan