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The week's question
In December 2024, in the thread "Re: BRK: Why Not XOM?", BreckHutHigh asked the members: "What about the long road trips with kids?" This week it is put to everyone again. The button below opens the small thread re-asking it - read what others have said so far, then give your own answer as an ordinary reply.
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Investment Strategies / Bond Investing
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Author: knighttof3   😊 😞
Number: of 102 
Subject: Finance textbooks
Date: 04/11/25 11:57 PM
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Every finance textbook I have read so far, implicitly assumes that US debt is default free. There is a whole structure of global finance based on this assumption.
Unfortunately, now we have to question it. And I don't know where we go from here. What is the/a risk free rate? How do you price in the fact that a guy who declared bankruptcy four times, or maybe six times, is in charge of US finances? There are many other countries who have never defaulted on their bonds and maybe that is the only way to invest in bonds right now. TL; DR, I think the assumption that US debt is default free, is dead and we need to add a default premium to all US treasuries. I just don't know how to compute that premium.
(As a primer, nominal interest rate for any bond = real interest rate + inflation + default premium + liquidity premium + maturity premium).
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This community has written 102 posts about Bond Investing. The article-length ones it recommended most:
Bond Investing, a Brief Intro · 20 recs · 2023
Target Maturity Funds (TMFs) · 8 recs · 2023
A Preview of Coming Attractions · 8 recs · 2023
OT: An exchange done at TMF. · 7 recs · 2023
A Book List for Bond Investing · 6 recs · 2023
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