No. of Recommendations: 1
Mungofitch wrote:
Random math to illustrate the concern: imagine that net margins gradually fell from today's roughly 11% back to the old normal of 6.1%, and that squiggly fall took place over 50 years. Let's say real sales rise at inflation + 2.5%/year in that time. In that scenario, real net profits would have risen at only 1.26%/year. I asked GPT 4o how much revenues had risen for 3 large members of the SP500 annualized over the last 20 years and it obliged with the following table:
Company Revenue 2004 (billion USD) Revenue 2024 (billion USD) Annualized Growth Rate (CAGR)
Amazon 6.92 590.74 24.7%
Apple 8.28 394.33 16.6%
Google 3.19 279.82 23.1%
Won't
Is there some reason to believe that this relatively long-lived trend will sink back to inflation+2.5% sometime soon?
R:
