but there was an interesting post elsewhere regarding retaliation against any drastic steps that china may take on american bond holdings. they proposed trump would seek to delist all chinese ADRs (not those military-adjacent),

Hmmm, that sounds like countering a tank with a bag of groceries.

I think that at some point the folks around Mr Trump will realize that he is not the one holding the cards in this case, as he likes to say. Some say that he was expecting a rapid surrender phone call from the Chinese when the high tariffs were first announced, and didn't get it--如果电话没响你就知道是我. ("if the phone don't ring you'll know it's me").

The US buys only a little over 14% of Chinese exports, and they are happy to endure pain as they don't particularly care if Chinese business owners squeal. The imports from the US are mostly commodities. A lot of Chinese exports to the US are mostly high tech and/or hard to replace. The Chinese do not need Americans to buy their bonds every day. The US will have to lose this particular fight, and then call it a win.

Jim

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