Post #708 by weatherman on the Macroeconomic Trends and Risks board

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given trump's lack of strategy and cowardice, i believe he will effectively back down from china as exemptions will be expanded for all meaningful items.

but there was an interesting post elsewhere regarding retaliation against any drastic steps that china may take on american bond holdings.
they proposed trump would seek to delist all chinese ADRs (not those military-adjacent), and place restrictions as were done on russian equities. this would suck not a small amount of liquidity out.

at this point, whether trump has authority versus whether trump would try seems decoupled.

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