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The week's question
In December 2024, in the thread "Re: BRK: Why Not XOM?", BreckHutHigh asked the members: "What about the long road trips with kids?" This week it is put to everyone again. The button below opens the small thread re-asking it - read what others have said so far, then give your own answer as an ordinary reply.
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Stocks A to Z / Stocks D / Dollar General (DG)
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Author: Goofyhoofy 🐝 HONORARY
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Number: of 285 
Subject: Re: Short Thesis
Date: 04/07/26 10:45 AM
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That could be true, but the “Walmart spread” sounds overblown, at least to me. I haven’t followed Wally in several years, but even so it seems unlikely that they have added enough stores in the hinterlands to make this kind of dent in DG’s primary business model.

Anecdotal evidence, not worth much I know: I have 3 WalMarts within reasonable driving distance, defined as 30 minutes or less. (Closest is 15). I pass 2 DGs (or similar) on the way to each of them - and this has not changed in over a decade.

Meanwhile, I drive the hinterlands of Tennmessee pretty often, going to art festivals, buying stuff off FB Marketplace, etc. and I pass DGs (or similar) all over the place and in depopulated areas where a Walmart would starve to death.

The secret sauce in DG, besides inventory selection and container-size to keep pricing down, is *location*. They started as the resurrection of the rural General Store, albeit with a price promise in the name. From that they have launched tens of thousands of stores, so they were obviously doing something right.

The biggest flaw is that there is barely any moat. Anybody can throw up four walls and put a sign out front (and several have: Family Dollar, Dollar Stores, 5 Below, etc) leading to a glut. Now, I presume, it’s a battle of business: outlasting and outflanking the other guys to be the king of the hill. Efficiency. Merchandising. Supply chains, that sort of thing. McDonalds vs Burger King vs Wendy’s, if you will.

For the record over the past 5 years Walmart has closed almost 200 of it’s “small format” (read: rural) stores and opened just 30. Doesn’t sound like a big threat, eh?

I suspect there’s room for all, unless there’s something going on with DG that I’m not aware of (certainly possible). All that said, short? Maybe. It would have to be a lot more compelling than “Walmart is opening stores nearby” because I don’t see it.
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This community has written 284 posts about Dollar General. The article-length ones it recommended most:
DG earnings · 30 recs · 2024
Past as Prologue? · 27 recs · 2023
dg, the new value line, · 9 recs · 2024
TEMU · 9 recs · 2023
DG: Theft · 7 recs · 2024
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