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The week's question
In December 2024, in the thread "Re: BRK: Why Not XOM?", BreckHutHigh asked the members: "What about the long road trips with kids?" This week it is put to everyone again. The button below opens the small thread re-asking it - read what others have said so far, then give your own answer as an ordinary reply.
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Investment Strategies / Mechanical Investing
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Author: mungofitch 🐝🐝🐝 GOLD
SHREWD
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Number: of 6131 
Subject: Re: Dividend investing
Date: 06/23/25 4:56 PM
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No. of Recommendations: 6
I wonder if you could test it against a popular dividend ETF like SCHD?

I don't like funds, as a rule. But probably pretty similar, to a first approximation.

The main differences seem to be
* their index is "capped cap weight", cap weight with a cap of 4% for any given company.
* it is large caps only
* they have a weighting on the factor "ratio of cash flow to total debt", which I guess is to ensure resilience through coverage. Not a bad idea, if you're looking for safe/quality companies, which my screen isn't
* they have a greater tilt towards dividend growth rate and long history, rather than dividend now
* their methodology is widely known, so arbs can and will front run it. Not as big a problem as with the S&P 500 or Russell 1000, but probably measurable.
* small fees, and probably some carefully hidden costs too

Presumably because of some mix of the above, the dividend yield seems to be lower. Comparing my estimate of what they actually paid (forward one year payments divided by current price, dates since 2012), to my figures (forward one year indicated yield divided by current price, same date range), their yield came out to 3.45% on the average starting date, the MI screen came out to 4.29%.

Also lower total return if dividends had been invested tax free, difference 2.88%/year. To be fair, their return is a real world result, and mine is mostly a backtest. I was probably overly generous with the trading costs, though. 0.4% round trip is pretty high for large caps these days, especially since it's essentially zero if you use MOC orders.

Jim
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This community has written 6,115 posts about Mechanical Investing. The article-length ones it recommended most:
Dividend investing · 52 recs · 2025
Non-Mag7 screen · 34 recs · 2025
OT - Div yields and returns · 32 recs · 2024
Using AI to generate backtesting programs · 30 recs · 2025
Rankings for 19Dec2022 · 29 recs · 2022
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