The anniversary of 10/7 has little to do with hezbullah and starting a war with them does nothing to signal a success in Gaza or an end to the war there. Opening a second front is politically and militarily risky.

You’ve offered a range of motives for why Bibi might start a war without addressing why the goal of intervening in the US election isn’t one of them. The Democratic Party has an ambiguous relationship with conservatives in Israel and even with Kamala in office the Israeli state has to be concerned about how far she can support them politically.

Trump, on the other had, has no qualms about supporting the most militant racists in the settler movement. Given this, the war with Hezbullah makes a lot of sense in pushing against the fissures in the Democratic Party political alliance.

It really is the only thing that explains the timing and makes sense of the risk to reward in this war push.