No. of Recommendations: 5
I just watched a video comparing 2026 to 1966 - basically that the macro's are similar
1966
- Business investment was accelerating, and not responding to higher short-term rates (due to war spending)
2016
- Business investment is accelerating, and doesn't seem to be responding to higher short-term rates (due to AI spending)
I decided to look at how the Bond market responded in the period following
Year Return Yield
1966 +2.91% 4.84%
1967 -1.58% 5.70%
1968 +3.27% 6.03%
1969 -5.01% 7.10%
1970 +16.7% 7.35%
Obviously this is too simplistic of a model to act on; but I found it interesting that it wasn't until 1970 that things actually got better in the Bond Market...
tecmo
...
PS: Here is the video if you are interested (this channel is pretty good) -
YouTube: The Money Squeeze Is Choking the World Economy (Casual Finance) 