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The week's question
In December 2024, in the thread "Re: BRK: Why Not XOM?", sykesix asked the members: "What do you do if you arrive early at movie besides go to the snack bar?" This week it is put to everyone again. The button below opens the small thread re-asking it - read what others have said so far, then give your own answer as an ordinary reply.
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Stocks A to Z / Stocks B / Berkshire Hathaway (BRK.A)
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Author: mungofitch ✹✺🐝🐝🐝 SILVER
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Number: of 22989 
Subject: Re: OT OT: bonds
Date: 11/01/26 2:51 PM
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Yes, basically, but to be pedantic, valuations do not mean revert; they cycle about the mean.

Actually I meant mean reversion in the boring pedantic mathematical sense. At any given time, a change towards the (roughly speaking) central zone of possible values is more likely than a change away from it. Either might happen, but not with equal probabilities, which would be a random walk. Since either direction might happen at any given time, it's not cyclical, a much stronger hypothesis, but merely mean reverting.

When things are extreme in one direction, you're more likely to see a move towards the less extreme than towards the more extreme.

The average over a given time interval might not (probably won't) be the same as in the next time interval, but that's more of a quibble in the grand scheme of things. If you know that you're definitely really far from the usual zone, you know which direction is the more likely one.

Jim
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This community has written 22,499 posts about Berkshire Hathaway. The article-length ones it recommended most:
BRK: Why Not XOM? · 62 recs · 2024
Second quarter comments · 60 recs · 2023
Berkshire's Profit Contributors · 58 recs · 2023
Summary of 2Q 2026 · 55 recs · 2026
3Q Summary · 53 recs · 2024
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