When it gives the right answer, and that is extended to all commercial topics, the effectiveness of advertising may be a magnitude greater, so people will use Google much more

I agree entirely with your argument, but will point out the implicit assumption that Google will be the one to bring to market, either through in-house development or by purchasing/stealing whatever Lotus 1-2-3 or Netscape Navigator equivalent emerges from the underbrush in the next few years.

The most salient example I can think of off the top of my head of the opposite occurring is the Disc Operating System developed by the Microcomputer Software Company that IBM took a pass on in the early 1980s, ostensibly in favor of hardware. Oopsie.

Other last-generation examples of seemingly unassailable first-movers being outmaneuvered (or just plain slow): Kodak, HP, Gateway. Sears.

Otherwise (and assuming no pesky societal apocalypses in the meantime), agree entirely with your ain't-seen-nothing-yet argument

--sutton