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The week's question
In December 2024, in the thread "Re: BRK: Why Not XOM?", BreckHutHigh asked the members: "What about the long road trips with kids?" This week it is put to everyone again. The button below opens the small thread re-asking it - read what others have said so far, then give your own answer as an ordinary reply.
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Stocks A to Z / Stocks P / Progressive Corporation (PGR)
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Author: DTB   😊 😞
Number: of 5 
Subject: Re: Reasonable price
Date: 02/12/26 7:04 PM
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Looking at the last few years, their net margin has been all over the place, from 2% in their worst year in a long time, 2022, to 8% in 2023, 11% in 2024, and 13% in 2025, for an average of 13%. If they had an average year with this net margin in 2026, with 15% growth in NPWW (down from 16% last year, 21% in 2024, and 25% in 2023), then the current price would represent 15x normalized net earnings.

Sorry, typo, obviously 13% is not the average of 2%, 8%, 21% thing and 13%. I misread my table, and should have said that 8% is the average of 2%, 6%, 11% and 13% (the last four years). The rest of the calculations and the conclusion are fine, though.
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