No. of Recommendations: 6
Third, BNSF was not some "let's put down massive capex dollars today in the hope that they will earn an ok return in the unknowable future" purchase by Buffett. It was a mature business that was already earning decent returns on capital operating in an oligopoly, and thus not at all speculative/venture type bet.
I don't think the Google investment was a particularly speculative bet. Let's assume the AI play doesn't pan out as expected. The rest of the business is growing revenue at double digit rates, quarter after quarter. It is very possible the Google investment doesn't turn out as well as they hoped, but it is hard to see it being worse than holding cash.
